W EUROPE: Very Cold Theme Remains For Christmas-New Year period, Just Small-Scale Adjustments

Written by on December 19, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments

As expected, after a milder few days, the cold and snow is back over Highland Scotland with a cold WNW flow.

Here’s the current view along the A9 at Drumnochter Summit.

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Slochd Summit

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Credit: Traffic Scotland

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

There are minor adjustments in the GFS pre-Christmas solution but the overall theme remains the same. We will continue to see small changes but I don’t see anything big. We have a mild but rather wet weekend and start to Christmas week coming up with a strong, mild Atlantic influence.

GFS surface

23rd

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The key will be in the low which passes by Christmas Eve as winds turn from WSW to NW and this reintroduces polar-maritime air and the return of snow showers to higher ground. However, it cannot be ruled out that enough cold air ‘wrapped around and or within’ this Christmas Eve low supports a ‘surprise snow’ to lower elevations. The latest run then pushes the low east, giving way to a cold high which makes for a cold start to Christmas with widespread frost followed by a largely dry, bright but cold Christmas Day with even a slight easterly flow developing. The timing of that low is crucial.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

It’s looking like a cold Christmas Day for Ireland, UK and near continent including the Low Countries, Germany up into Denmark.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

That’s a cold air mass as you can see from the 850 temps.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Another low pushes in towards next weekend and the model begins to develop a cold, complex pattern with twin lows and the potential for widespread, low level snow. Too far out to really make a judgement or call on this.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Those two lows form into one big wheel over Scandinavia which unleashes the real arctic discharge we all dream of.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Note the 510 line approaching Scotland while the 516 line is over the English Channel. That’s true arctic air!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS has much of the UK snow covered by this time. Snow cover verses this type of air mass suggests MAJOR cold nights.

gfs384-null--uk-240-A-frozen_cover10

Sure, the GFS is going somewhat to the extreme but given the setup developing and the potential, I think this is possible. At the least it’s fun to see on the charts…

See video for more.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top