As expected, after a milder few days, the cold and snow is back over Highland Scotland with a cold WNW flow.
Here’s the current view along the A9 at Drumnochter Summit.
Slochd Summit
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There are minor adjustments in the GFS pre-Christmas solution but the overall theme remains the same. We will continue to see small changes but I don’t see anything big. We have a mild but rather wet weekend and start to Christmas week coming up with a strong, mild Atlantic influence.
GFS surface
23rd
The key will be in the low which passes by Christmas Eve as winds turn from WSW to NW and this reintroduces polar-maritime air and the return of snow showers to higher ground. However, it cannot be ruled out that enough cold air ‘wrapped around and or within’ this Christmas Eve low supports a ‘surprise snow’ to lower elevations. The latest run then pushes the low east, giving way to a cold high which makes for a cold start to Christmas with widespread frost followed by a largely dry, bright but cold Christmas Day with even a slight easterly flow developing. The timing of that low is crucial.
It’s looking like a cold Christmas Day for Ireland, UK and near continent including the Low Countries, Germany up into Denmark.
That’s a cold air mass as you can see from the 850 temps.
Another low pushes in towards next weekend and the model begins to develop a cold, complex pattern with twin lows and the potential for widespread, low level snow. Too far out to really make a judgement or call on this.
Those two lows form into one big wheel over Scandinavia which unleashes the real arctic discharge we all dream of.
Note the 510 line approaching Scotland while the 516 line is over the English Channel. That’s true arctic air!
GFS has much of the UK snow covered by this time. Snow cover verses this type of air mass suggests MAJOR cold nights.
Sure, the GFS is going somewhat to the extreme but given the setup developing and the potential, I think this is possible. At the least it’s fun to see on the charts…
See video for more.
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