Northern England Snow Event Still Likely, -10C Possible Saturday AM

Written by on December 11, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments

Across northern areas of the Republic, Northern Ireland and the UK, it’s been another cold, windy and snowy day with more thunder, lightning and hail thrown in for good measure.

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While further snow showers pile in from a more northerly direction over Scotland with a significant ice risk developing tonight, it’s all eyes on parts of the Republic, Northern Ireland and northern England where a system which quickly develops and pushes through, could bring accumulating snowfall. Yes even to areas near sea level tonight into tomorrow.

Plenty of snow now over high level road routes across Scotland. Should see this further south by tomorrow morning.

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Snow even lay in thin, slushy style here at lower levels this morning for the first time.

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The exact positioning of the low as it cuts across England and Wales tonight into tomorrow is key to where the snow falls and accumulates. Yes, the northerly wind produced by the big low (situated over the Norwegian Sea) may increase snow potential across Cumbria, Northumberland, Durham into Lancashire, Tyneside, Yorkshire as the west-east low receives enhanced cold air. Several major northern towns may waken to a surprise 1-2 inches tomorrow morning. Higher sections of the Pennines could see nasty blizzard conditions thanks to gusty winds and heavy snow which could force closures of such routes as the A66.

Were talking heavy rain and gales elsewhere across Ireland, southern England and Wales.

Ok, let’s boil down the facts. The low to the north (weatherbomb) appears to me, to drive arctic air south which the low crossing the UK will pull in and thus precip ‘should’ fall as snow fairly widely on the NORTH or NORTHWEST side of the centre. Had that low NOT been seeded by the low over the Norwegian Sea, well I would think it’s more rain than snow and snow limited mainly to the tops of the Pennines.

Check out the position of the low off the GFS and ECMWF.

ECMWF

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF is a touch further south and stronger which suggests more snow than the weaker, slightly further north GFS. The stronger the low, the more it may cool the atmosphere below and thus ‘surprise’ snow.

GFS snow forecast through 48h

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Looks cold pretty much across the board tomorrow night. Northerly flow during the day tomorrow will keep highs between 0-3C in the North but milder WSW winds keep it warmer at 8-11C but tomorrow evening sees the door open with arctic air flooding in. Clear sky, light winds and where there’s snow cover, we could easily see -3 to -8, locally -10C Saturday morning.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Check out these 6z 850 temps for Saturday morning over the UK!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See video from earlier for more.

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