What a difference a year makes. We are in a mean northwesterly air pattern in which waves of polar-maritime air is being driven south over the UK and near continent with snow likely to become a much more common form of precip through the second half of this weekend on into mid and late week following the passage of another strong cold front. At this time last year it was a west to southwest flow. All wind, rain and no snow!

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What is the significant difference up till now? HIGH PRESSURE wants to build and hold over the North Atlantic and while the Atlantic remains involved, the jet is being forced north towards Greenland which obviously alters are air flow source and thus we’re in a colder pattern.

Today is wet and dreary as the latest front heads gradually SE. Behind it, more cold and with a strengthening NW wind tomorrow, expect snow showers to whip in fast and frequently in Scotland with a rain-sleet-snow mix to lower ground but above 200 metres and it’s more or less all snow.

Monday looks cold with highs of 0-4C in the North, 4-8 in the South but factor that wind and it’s more like freezing or below.

As a ridge builds in later Monday I have concern about a potentially colder night than what models are showing. If we get a surface high building with a widespread -5 to -10 cap at 5,000ft, then that cold will drop to the surface overnight and where snow may be lying, don’t be surprised if somewhere over either the Highlands or N Pennines registers -10C. Widely -3 to -6 elsewhere. This is more a hunch than forecast since I may be missing something such as widespread cloud cover or something.

Then it’s all action Wednesday as that monster N Atlantic bomb sends it’s cold front through bringing gales/severe gales, rain with potential changeover to snow then a cold but bright northwest flow follows through the 2nd half of the work week.

Next weekend looks interesting as the models have a straight northerly driving reinforcing arctic air into the UK. You get the picture by now. This pattern looks set to hold and not fold but time will tell. I am getting more pumped about January and February as seasonal feedback of the ENSO and SST’s kick in. This is a cold but still Atlantic pattern but look out as these types of pattern we’re now in can lead to other things later.

Below are the charts I showed in today’s video. Be sure to watch it. Looks of exciting things to come!

First MO snow warning for Sunday 7th. Look out on high levels routes across Scotland, Northern Ireland and N England. You may have a snowy travel.

ECMWF looks as excited as I’m getting about this pattern with it’s building snowpack over the UK.

Through 7 days

10 days

What about Europe?

Monday’s surface

850 temps are uniformly -5 to -10 over UK.

Here comes that N Atlantic beast. Brings next punch of cold into UK with snow levels lowering again.

Then towards late week and next weekend, winds turn northerly. Possibly coldest we’ve seen yet. Still a bit away though.

Check out the 500mb height chart for next weekend. I like what I’m seeing with that big positive heading north towards the Davis Straits and Greenland.

10m streamline chart for same period shows arctic source air dropping straight south.

The EPS control appears to be heading towards the ENSO analog package in the next 2.5 weeks. Check out the height rises over Hudson Bay and north of the UK in the 500mb height anomalies.

See video for more.

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