W EUROPE: December-like With Snow Showers This Weekend, More Next Weekend?

Written by on December 2, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The models have been adamant on high pressure building in from the west this week and sure enough it’s here. A damp, drizzly front pushed through late Monday and overnight skies cleared out and with modestly cold air filtering in, we awakened to a frosty, icy start here and widely.

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As pointed out in last night’s post, this high isn’t ‘cold sourced’ but has been seeded some by maritime polar air which got pulled in on the backside of the front. Nights will turn colder as the air mass establishes. Don’t be surprised to see widespread -2 to -4 and -8 in Highland Glens tonight and tomorrow night. With the cold base temps to start the day and low angled sun (Dec 21 is the shortest day of the year!), highs will struggle and won’t reach freezing if overnight fog forms.

So, all in all it’s settled but seasonably cold the rest of this week but things turn a little more interesting Friday on into the weekend as high pressure backs west and with the help of another high to the east, winds pick up from the north which drafts in a more firmer polar sourced air mass. This should bring snow showers to parts of Northern Ireland, Scotland and possibly northern England.

Latest ECM surface chart shows the northerly flow between the Atlantic and Europe highs feeding polar air down over the UK.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ecmwfued---europe-96-A-850hgt

Stays chilly with snow showers possible into early next week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS and ECMWF are bullish on UK snowfall through Monday… Don’t think there’s this much as I don’t see there being enough available moisture.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Temps recover Tue/Wed as the next front approaches with temporary wind shift to SW direction but by late week and into next weekend, it’s a near repeat of this upcoming weekend strong, cold NW winds and another chance at snow.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

850 temps fall sharp once the low pushes east of Scotland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECM snow chart through 240 hrs.

ecmwfued-null--uk-240-A-frozentot10

IF that low crosses the north side of Scotland, it’s once the centre passes EAST that we’ve the best chance at snow as colder air sweeps in.

GFS day 1-8 meteogram for Glasgow shows the chillier outlook with ups and downs in temperature depending on position of low pressure.

Day 1-8

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9-15

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Notice the low temps to start next week then a rise and fall as the low crosses.

Yes, it even sees some snow both Monday and more so late next week.

Day 1-8

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5588-450meteogram_pcp

Day 9-15

gfs384-hgtprs--conus-204-A-us5593-450meteogram_pcp

See what’s going on here? Colder air is becoming more involved as we enter winter BUT the Atlantic remains a player. Why? There’s no strat warming on our side of the pole and thus there’s no -NAO but I recon if the warming progresses at 30 to 50mb, we should start to see blocking between Scandinavia and Greenland. May even take till late December or early January. I’ve pegged mid to late winter as the worst for us but still, we should still see winter on this side of New Year.

The arctic oscillation going negative should help Atlantic lows bring our ‘wintry weather’.

I must say though. Because of the HUGE shifting up above, modelling is slow to catch on to changes and thus the second half of December is very much open to question. A sudden strat warming event is more likely now later in December or early January but this doesn’t mean we can’t get cold with northern blocking developing.

See video for discussion.

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