Well it’s goodbye autumn, hello winter! Today marks day 1 of metrological winter 2014-15.
Following a mild and eventually wet autumn, the pattern appears to be turning more seasonable with a cold trend through winter’s opening week.
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We’ve currently got a front separating mild and modestly cold air and this will cover the UK beyond Wednesday. With high pressure capping off the atmosphere, expect a drop in temp with some sunshine and highs 2-5C down between Mon and Friday. Clear skies and light winds mean frost and fog will become dominant and where fog lingers through the day, expect temps to struggle with frost failing to melt.
Then by the time we reach the weekend, two high pressure cells will be positioned west and east of the UK which means a northerly air flow will transport colder air south. This will make for a winter feel for sure, especially in the breeze.
The high building in from the west isn’t cold source but is seeded by a modest brand of maritime polar air from the NW as seen by the 850 temps.
If there’s a decent amount of clear skies by night, temps will drop off nicely, supporting a fairly sharp frost along with patches of dense fog.
By Friday that highs backs west out into the Atlantic which means winds turn northerly and the source region becomes more arctic.
Expect daytime highs to fall and with cold nights and a cold base, expect highs to struggle this weekend. SNOW showers are likely with any moisture, especially on hills but may even get to lower levels across Scotland. All depends of availability of moisture which is often limited with northern source air.
850 temps enter the -5 to -10 range this weekend.
While there’s no sign just yet of anything Siberian or ‘locked in’, there’s is a distinct shift going on in the atmosphere above which shows several ‘shots’ coming down from the north between now and Christmas.
The ECM has a fairly deep low close to N Scotland late weekend into early next week but looks to drag some rather cold air in. These systems may be worth keeping close watch as they may have enough cold air to bring some surprise snow.
Thicknesses and cold 850 temps at 222hrs on the backside of the low may support snow even to lower levels.
Albeit it’s progressive (in and out), that’s an impressive negative over the N UK.
Check out the UK snow projections through the next 10 days!
See video from earlier.
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