Strat Warming & MJO Pushes Europe Towards Mid-December Cold Spell

Written by on November 30, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The recent burst of warming at 30mb has been sending strong waves through the polar stratosphere further weakening the polar vortex. This should send additional pieces of very cold air down into the mid-latitudes and with shifting of phases in the tropical MJO, the environment becomes more favourable for some of this polar air to enter the Western Europe pattern by week 2 of December.

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Week 1 of December and winter 2014-15 will be dominated by an anticyclone which promotes mainly settled conditions with daytime sunshine and nighttime clear. This lowers the temp and raises the frost and fog risk.

0-7 day 500mb height anomaly.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ecmwfued---europe-72-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Here’s the latest burst of warming at 30mb from Siberia towards the pole.

temp30anim__1_

The above warming along with the MJO shift looks to be reshaping the global weather pattern with a visible change within the next 2 weeks including here in W Europe.

The MJO is something that has not been looked at or shown here since way back at the start of the hurricane season. Today is in fact the final day of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As well as enhancing tropical cyclone formation in certain of the tropics during the summer, the MJO is an index which affects the global weather pattern year round and models appear to be trying to take it into phase 6.

Figure8e

Phase 6 of the MJO favours cold in Western Europe.

Credit: Eric Webb

Credit: Eric Webb

Here’s the analog for a phase 6 in December.

Credit: Eric Webb

Credit: Eric Webb

The below EPS Control (500mb height anomaly) shows a colder trend with persistent flexing of POSITIVE HEIGHTS into the North Atlantic extending up into Greenland which sends the NEGATIVE over or near the UK. The best example of this is seen Dec 14 which happens to be my daughter Holly’s 1st birthday.

As early as next weekend, high pressure builds west of the UK and with another high over Scandinavia, we find ourselves under a cold northerly (1st chart below) but look at the period after in the below EPS control 500mb height anomaly charts for the major N Atlantic ridge/UK trough towards mid-month.

Colder northerly flow by the end of this week.

ECM surface

ecmwfued---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

850 temps

ecmwfued---europe-132-A-850hgt

500mb height anomaly

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See today’s video for more!

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