New Warm Surge Above Siberia Keeps Europe’s Winter Hopes High

Written by on November 28, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell is one of the best Long Range forecasters around, a man I’ve followed and learned from for many years. He brought back up just yesterday a theory I first heard him say back in the autumn of 2009 about ‘where the wettest weather sets up during autumn (over Europe), quite often that’s where the cold goes the following winter.

It’s also often warmer than normal.

The 30 day precip anomaly shows wetter than normal for much of the UK.

p_30day_figb

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Here’s a new surge of strat warming at 30pha over Siberia. This is about the 3rd burst since early October when the snow pack growth explosively.

temp30anim__1_

Warming not just started early this year but it’s at near record levels and opposite of this time last year!

30mb9065__1_

Notice in the 2009 SSWE that the warming BEGINS over Siberia just like what we’re seeing above…

ssw_2009

Another commonality to what we’ve seen in the past to now is there’s often a ridge centred over or close to the UK which then get’s shunted WNW up to Greenland in response to the explosive warming over the arctic.

BOTH the ECMWF and GFS show a ridge OVER the UK next week and both try to shift it westwards towards mid-December. However, they are having a tough time handing the energy and probably don’t see the full scale of what’s going on in the high levels opf the atmosphere.

ECMWF

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS similar but with time, it throws up too much ridge.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The 240 hour ECMWF chart shows the mean ridge in a prime position from the shut down of the westerly flow into Ireland and the UK. As stated previous. We MUST get blocking more due west which extends up into Greenland than blocking further north as the westerlies remain intact from Canada to UK but throw the boulder into the middle and the stream must re-route. Sam with the atmosphere!

Certainly interesting times ahead and I am happy with the autumn which turned out pretty good and things look promising at least as we head into the first meteorological month of winter 2014-15.

See video for discussion!

Next update Sunday.

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