Don’t pay attention to the latest piece in the Express, it’s utter rubbish. The winter waiting game continues with no solid evidence suggesting a colder pattern is in the near term.
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Sure, we’re seeing some nice strong warming in the upper stratosphere but not down in the mid and low levels. Until then, our wait continues.
1hpa
30hpa
AO and NAO are heading positive.
and so we loose the northern blocking as seen by the below 8-16 day GFS 500mb height anomalies but notice towards the end of the 15 day AO/NAO projection above there’s a firm NEGATIVE trend showing.
8-14 day
9-16
The trouble is, there have been plenty of non solar max years with weak to moderate El Ninos which have produced decent or significant winters on the other side of the Atlantic but produced less or little here on this side. Example: 02-03, 03-04 and as stated already, we had a record breaking cold spell in late Dec 95 which sent temps to a UK all-time record tying -27C at Braemar, -20 in Glasgow but when weighing up the entire 95-96 winter, it didn’t look that bad…
DO NOT get me wrong, things can quickly flip, especially with the amount of strong ‘top warming’ of the stratosphere but we need to see this warming downwell before things change around here, especially as we head into winter itself. I haven’t all of a sudden shifted towards warm but merely being objective and showing you reality. Lot’s of reason to remain optimistic.
See video for discussion.
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