Nice Correlation Showing Between This Autumn & 2000, Mentioned In Winter Forecast!

Written by on November 19, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

In my winter forecast I brought up the winter of 2000-2001. There are some nice parallels to autumn of 2000 and this year showing up. While there’s some similarities, admittedly there are some opposites too.

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As pointed out in yesterday’s post. This is ALL theory but seasonal outlooks are often weighed against past patterns with good linkage with similar drivers.

The NH snow pack during October was heaviest since 2000.

B1BvMNaIIAA0yNU

The cold impacting the US currently, is compared to that of 2000 and 1976.

What kind of autumn was it across the UK and Ireland in 2000? Wet, record wet!

We’ve seen a mild, wet mid Oct through mid-November period this year with major flooding in just the last week over parts of the Republic and Northern Ireland.

Credit: Met Office/Crown

Credit: Met Office/Crown

Winter 2000-01 was indeed a mixed bag with plenty of mild but was in fact the coldest UK winter since 1996-97. It produced some major snow with a white Christmas for some. Cold was also noteworthy at times. Major snowfall crippled the England-Scotland border in February 2001. On the whole (UK weighed) it was a near average winter temp-wise but had plenty of winter in it. That’s what I think could happen this year. 2000-01 was somewhat of a less extreme version of 2009-10.

This year is just like that of 2000 in terms of coming off a solar maximum from the previous warm winter. That makes the upcoming weeks rather interesting and exciting.

Hathaway_Cycle_24_Prediction

Based on the fact we’re coming off a much weaker maximum than that 2000 and SST’s are much more similar to 2009 than 2000 and we’ve an El Nino coming on with east QBO underway, I still have concerns and I believe we may have a winter in between 2000-01 and 2009-10 if that makes sense.

I would be amazed if we don’t get some winter this year but my greatest concern right now is exactly WHERE the cold sets up. I do fear the 2011-12 example where major cold drove into Europe but fell short of the UK.

Time will tell.

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