EUROPE: Have We A Cold December Ahead? In Theory, Yes…

Written by on November 17, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Michael Ventrice tweeted the December MQI analog for Europe and it’s looking very similar to the latest CFS forecast.

MQI

B2pMSGBIcAAck27

CFS

B2pMS0lIYAEel2H

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Modelling, both operational and ensemble are at least ‘trending’ towards a colder outcome to end Nov and start Dec across Europe in potential response to the continued warming of the stratosphere. Another thing worth noting is that models struggle to see big events such as strat warming and so the next 1-2 weeks will be very interesting to see whether they turn colder and colder. Only time will tell.

Take a look at the 168 and 240 hour ECMWF 500mb height anomaly charts. Look at what’s happening, positive spreads over top of the negative similar to the above analog and forecasts for next month!

168

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-168-A-500hgtanom

240

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-240-A-500hgtanom

CFSv2 initially showed a negative height field over the north week 3-4 (yesterday) but now shows a Greenland to Scandinavia block with westward expansion week 3 into 4!

wk3_wk4_20141115_z500

GFS ensemble 7-day mean through 16 days shows similar with the build up of heights initially over Scandinavia which spreads west. Watching the development of a Hudson Bay block which hooks up.

0-7 day

gefs-hgt--world-168-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

7-14

gefs-hgt--world-336-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

9-16

gefs-hgt--world-384-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

ECMWF 10 day snow chart.

ecmwfued-null--europe-240-A-frozentot10

ECMWF Control  snow forecast at 360 hours.

ecmwfa1ec-null--europe-360-A-frozentot10

All the above are great signs pointing towards a colder December but remember… Until it happens, this is all theory!!

See video for discussion.

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