Extreme US Cold Pattern Shifts East Next Week But Warm-Up Is In Sight!

Written by on November 15, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

US snow cover extent continues to soar as the next deep trough sets it’s sights on the Midwest and East this weekend. Major snowfall is expect with the next batch of cold from Tennessee up to New England.

nsm_depth_2014111405_National

Notice how the model sees significant expansion of the snow cover by 120 hours.

ecmwfued-null--conus-120-A-frozen_cover10

ecmwfued-null--usne-120-A-frozen_cover10

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We could be talking the greatest mid-November snow cover in 50 years with this next blast, possibly expanding snow cover towards 60 or 70% of the nation.

Wow, what a trough!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Impressive area of -15 to -20C at 850mb at 00z Tuesday over The US. Even a pocket of -20 to -25C over Iowa!

gfs---conus-96-A-850hgt

Mean 2-metre temps next 7 days are brutal.

350x262_11140124_eurowk1temps

Alaska Warmth Aloft

9 times out of 10, when it’s frigid in the Lower 48, it’s warm up in Alaska.

Strong blocking high pressure over Alaska is part of the reason why it’s so cold further south and today we’ve seen 9C temps at 850mb above Fairbanks. That’s an all-time record high for November at 850 over Alaska.

ecmwfued---alaska-00-A-850hgt

It’s warmer at 850 over central Alaska today than along the US-Mexico border!

ecmwfued---namericawide-00-A-850hgt

No surprise to see the positive above Alaska is nearly off the scale today, supporting the incredible warmth through the atmosphere.

ecmwfued-hgt--namericawide-00-A-500hgtanom

2nd Trough Is Deeper Than First But Less Cold?

While next week’s trough will be deeper than this week’s with lower thicknesses and colder 850 temps, surface readings won’t go to the same extreme. In other words we won’t see the widespread sub 0s with -20s and even -30s with departures of 40 to 50 below. That is simply down to the fact the geography of the Western US enhances snowfall and cold. You tend to get 20, possibly 30 below normal east of the Mississippi with this intensity of cold air mass and that at this time of year will be enough to produce impressive record cold.

This air mass will challenge all-time record lows across the Ohio Valley and interior East (esp the Appalachians) for the month of November but these benchmarks aren’t as cold as Out West.

Lows should widely drop into the 10s with single digits to below zero for some, helped greatly by the fresh snow that will be on the ground.

Warm-Up On The Way?

With the AO heading towards positive next 10 days, so the ridge collapses and gives way to a trough over Alaska and therefore we see warming across the US just in time for Thanksgiving.

CFSv2 weekly sees the warm-up that’s on the way week 2.

wk1_wk2_20141113_NAsfcT

However, more cold is expected to follow as the strat warming persists and many other drivers suggest we have a significant winter on the way. STAY TUNED!

See video for discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top