Flooding Hits Northern Ireland, More Could Be On The Way While El Nino / East QBO Continues Progressing…

Written by on November 14, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

A slow moving frontal system drawing warm, moist air from the south has brought significant rain and consequential flooding across parts of the Republic and Northern Ireland. This falls very nicely with my long term ideas. Clearly stated back in late summer, I pegged November as a wet month where flooding would become an issue. We’re likely to see more flooding events before the month is out given the continuation of this Atlantic pattern.

Here are a few images of the flooding around Newry, Co Down (where I was born) this morning. Courtesy of Joanne Crossey.

Credit: Joanne Cassey

Credit: Joanne Cassey

Credit: Joanne Cassey

Credit: Joanne Cassey

NI and the Republic catch a break this weekend into early next week as weak ridging settles in as the low which brought all the wet weather sinks and fades over France. By mid to late next week, models bring in more wet and windy weather and we must watch these fronts as they slow on approach (due to blocking further east) as models show deep moisture being tapped from the south!

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Here’s the latest GFS surface charts through the next 7 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

gfs---europe-144-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-156-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Reason’s To Be Hopeful That Cold Is Coming!

While blocking breaks down across the north, one must not fret. After all we saw a spike in AO/NAO around this time back in 2009 and the below suggests the next build-up of heights across the pole may actually mean something to us here in Western Europe…

The El Nino finally appears to be getting going with a steady fall in the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index)

Credit: Michael Ventrice)

Credit: Michael Ventrice)

anomnight_11_13_2014

Easterly QBO continues to progress (opposite of last year at this time)

Credit: Michael Ventrice)

Credit: Michael Ventrice)

GFS appears to be splitting the PV by 240 hrs…

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Will do a video on this tomorrow…

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