A slow moving frontal system drawing warm, moist air from the south has brought significant rain and consequential flooding across parts of the Republic and Northern Ireland. This falls very nicely with my long term ideas. Clearly stated back in late summer, I pegged November as a wet month where flooding would become an issue. We’re likely to see more flooding events before the month is out given the continuation of this Atlantic pattern.
Here are a few images of the flooding around Newry, Co Down (where I was born) this morning. Courtesy of Joanne Crossey.
NI and the Republic catch a break this weekend into early next week as weak ridging settles in as the low which brought all the wet weather sinks and fades over France. By mid to late next week, models bring in more wet and windy weather and we must watch these fronts as they slow on approach (due to blocking further east) as models show deep moisture being tapped from the south!
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Here’s the latest GFS surface charts through the next 7 days.
Reason’s To Be Hopeful That Cold Is Coming!
While blocking breaks down across the north, one must not fret. After all we saw a spike in AO/NAO around this time back in 2009 and the below suggests the next build-up of heights across the pole may actually mean something to us here in Western Europe…
The El Nino finally appears to be getting going with a steady fall in the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index)
Easterly QBO continues to progress (opposite of last year at this time)
GFS appears to be splitting the PV by 240 hrs…
Will do a video on this tomorrow…
[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
Recent Comments