Interesting Times Ahead For Western Europe!!

Written by on November 5, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

While winter is off to a fast start across many parts of the hemisphere, I must admit, I am getting excited at what I’m seeing for us.

Until there’s clear evidence, I’m not jumping but notice the tanking in the Arctic Oscillation…


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And yes, the North Atlantic Oscillation is going negative too…


The 10mb warming is shifting slightly with warmth pushing into NW North America. While this signals a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak int0 the US, it’s not a big indicator here BUT this shift is catching my attention and we’ll need to keep watching this closely. This this warming continues and continues to push, we may see the polar vortex split apart with pieces diving into the mid-latitudes on our part of the world.


This can be the early signs of a full scale strat warming event later down the road. Perhaps in early to mid December like we saw a few years back. Once these occur, it’s usually 1-2 weeks later we turn very cold.

The ECMWF is at least showing height rises to our north in the 7-10 day. Notice the isobars are trying to draw an easterly flow. I still think it’s too early for any big event here but at the very least, the signs are positive!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The 500mb Height anomalies show these height rises to our north and east nicely!



Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

10 day snow forecast.


BTW, when you combine all years with the same variables to this year, Dec looks like this… Via Anthony Sagliani!


It’s hard not to notice 1976 showing up. We have a lot of interesting stuff coming up folks!

Cold Bonfire Night

As for bonfire night tonight… it’s going to be a wrap-up-warm sort of night under clear skies and light winds. A widespread frost is likely with rural lows comfortably below 0C. Sheltered parts expect -2 to -4C by tomorrow morning. -8C possible somewhere in Highland Scotland.


Back to wind, rain and mild later Thursday into Friday!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Be sure to watch the video for more…

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  1. wow, didn’t manage to see this yesterday as was travelling but what an update for cold lovers!

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