EUROPE: Atlantic Pattern Bring’s Typical Up’s And Down’s To Start November

Written by on October 30, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Ahead of the next weather maker, we have some exceptionally warm air being tapped from the Azores. By Friday, factoring in a stiff but warm SW flow and plenty of sun ahead of the next front, we could see 21-22C around London. Had this been a day later (Nov 1st), then we would have been threatening the UK November record of 21.7C recorded back in 1946. However, the October record remains safe at nearly 30C set back a couple of years ago.

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There’s some stirrings these days about a possible cold blast coming. Sure it’s going to turn ‘cold’ on the rear of each passing low and yes there will be daytime max’s below 9-10C, some snow showers in the air (probably above most towns and cities) and yes there will also be night frosts, however it’s a typical ATLANTIC pattern. No sign as of yet of any cold pattern developing. Too early!

Good thing is I do expect cold later in November and certainly into December so don’t fret as I am not calling on a warm winter like last year.

Here’s the day 3-10 500mb height anomalies off the ECMWF. LOW PRESSURE dominates! Watching more southern parts this upcoming month for some heavy, flooding rainfall.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS suggests a ZONAL flow day 7-16!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF surface shows the long warm flow into SE England from the sub tropics once again. That bring an unusual summery feel to the air in London for the last day of Oct. Looking damp for Denmark which sits between Atlantic and arctic air.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Warmth is eye catching at 5,000ft. Note the cold curling around the backside of the low.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here comes the colder air on the backside as winds veer NW.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Will be a lot colder late weekend into early and mid next week as a ridge slides in separating the departing low from the next one approaching. FROST becomes a notable feature of next week’s weather.

ecmwfued---europe-168-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Quite the low over Italy once again as next front crosses UK. Denmark remains in warm or mild air while cold sinks into central Scand.

ecmwfued---europe-192-A-mslpthkpcp_white

I made mention of a possible turn to somewhat colder later in November. Note in the below stratospheric temp chart, there’s a new batch of warming taking place. Another possible reaction to that monster Siberian snow pack. This will be worth a watch not only for potential blocking late Nov into early Dec but the atmosphere is showing us already that strat warming is looking highly likely to this winter and it could be a recurring element to the upcoming winter.

hgt_ao_cdas__8_

NO VIDEO today unfortunately. On the road before 5am and won’t be home till this evening…

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