Hope you had a chance to watch last night’s video regarding my latest US winter thoughts.
Based on the type of global pattern, solar, east QBO, weak nino (coming on), global sst profile etc…
This makes sense.
So does this.
But this DOESN’T.
The CFSv2 contradicts it’s own winter SST forecast.
Which is contradicted by it’s upper height anomalies. You shouldn’t see a negative above warmer than normal water over the Pacific. The warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska pumped the ridge last winter resulting in frequent shots of arctic/Siberian air into the Lower 48. This should happen again given similar water temp anomalies.
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As for the nearer term, well remember I caught onto the idea of an end of October Upper Midwest snowstorm? The model still shows ‘potential’ with a deepening low pushing ENE through the Lakes with heavy backside precip, strong wind and cold air being pulled out of Canada. It just doesn’t see the snow, YET!
Now the model is seeing a bigger, much more extreme surge of cold into the Midwest and eventually the East with end this month.
Check out those incredibly low heights extending all the way towards the NC-SC border. 522 heights to near the VA-NC border? This is highly likely to be well overdone.
The 850 temps are just as wild as the thicknesses.
216 hrs
500mb height anomaly.
2 metre temp anomaly.
A wild 10 day snow chart.
More tomorrow.
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