US OUTLOOK: End Of October/Start Of November Arctic Blast?

Written by on October 23, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Hope you had a chance to watch last night’s video regarding my latest US winter thoughts.

Based on the type of global pattern, solar, east QBO, weak nino (coming on), global sst profile etc…

This makes sense.

B0imhsrCEAAgJBU

So does this.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

But this DOESN’T.

usT2mSeaInd2

The CFSv2 contradicts it’s own winter SST forecast.

glbSSTSeaInd2

Which is contradicted by it’s upper height anomalies. You shouldn’t see a negative above warmer than normal water over the Pacific. The warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska pumped the ridge last winter resulting in frequent shots of arctic/Siberian air into the Lower 48. This should happen again given similar water temp anomalies.

glbz700SeaInd2

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

As for the nearer term, well remember I caught onto the idea of an end of October Upper Midwest snowstorm? The model still shows ‘potential’ with a deepening low pushing ENE through the Lakes with heavy backside precip, strong wind and cold air being pulled out of Canada. It just doesn’t see the snow, YET!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Now the model is seeing a bigger, much more extreme surge of cold into the Midwest and eventually the East with end this month.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Check out those incredibly low heights extending all the way towards the NC-SC border. 522 heights to near the VA-NC border? This is highly likely to be well overdone.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The 850 temps are just as wild as the thicknesses.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

216 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

500mb height anomaly.

ecmwfued-hgt--conus-216-A-500hgtanom

2 metre temp anomaly.

gfs384-tmp--conus-216-A-2mtempanom

A wild 10 day snow chart.

ecmwfued-null--conus-240-A-frozentot10

More tomorrow.

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