Most of us are watching Gonzalo carefully as it heads UK-bound early next week but as for the here and now, we’ve got a mild, moist Azores air mass in place, drawn in by stiff southwest winds blowing along a long fetch cold front. Lows this morning didn’t get below 16.8C at Shoreham Airport. That’s above normal even by daytime at this time of year.
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Today will be another mild one but check out the contrast between northeast and southwest Europe. Lows have been down to -15C up in Finland.
Here’s today’s surface showing the mild flow thanks to the SW to NE direction of the isobars. Blustery with heavy, frequent showers over NW Scotland today but downwind areas further east could see highs of 18, maybe 19C in parts of Grampian or Aberdeenshire.
That system clears out and then our eyes turn to Gonzalo. It went right over Bermuda last night packing wind gusts of 144 mph. They are likely to awaken this morning to a lot of damage despite being well prepared with high building codes equipped for major hurricanes.
Latest NHC track takes Gonzalo up and just off Newfoundland Sunday perhaps as a minimal hurricane before really accelerating across the Atlantic into Scotland Tuesday.
The models take a healthy remnant low of Gonzalo into Scotland Tuesday as a sub-980 low with tight isobars indicating that winds could be severe gale strength at the coast and on high ground. Gales elsewhere.
Flooding rain is likely with this, remember the original SOURCE is tropical and therefore this could contain more moisture despite being cold core at this stage.
10 metre wind gusts are expected to top 65 kts over the North Channel/Irish Sea.
Cold enough air drawn in from the north should mean snow for the hills.
I have to emphasize, snow is NOT uncommon by now over the UK hills and it won’t be significant whereas it may be over the continent when this low interacts with very cold air streaming out of Russia.
GFS expands below normal area incorporating the UK in the day 8-16.
See today’s video for discussion.
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