WESTERN EUROPE 10 DAY: Spell Of Potential Fog & Frost Ahead Of Some Very Wet Weather

Written by on October 11, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

A canopy of low pressure hanging overhead supplying our sunshine and shower regime will gradually clear into the Norwegian Sea later today into Sunday but look out Southern England, a low now gathering in the Bay of Biscay looks set to bring a soaking Sun evening. Winds too will be a feature.

The good news is that early and mid next week looks pretty decent with high pressure building in following the late week wind and rain across mainly South, Southeast England. Of course a high pressure system at this time of year means FOG will be quite widespread and dense by night beneath mainly clear skies and non-existent wind! Overnight minimums are sure to drop off quickly with rural frost likely. Many could see their first true frost with this set up.

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So, while high pressure brings cool, crisp, bright autumn days and foggy, chilly nights, we have a very large area of low pressure winding up out over the central North Atlantic. This bears watching as it’s associated fronts will heavily influence our weather probably by Thursday, setting the stage for a wet, windy late week and weekend. It should bring milder air too compared to the upcoming 3 to 5 days as we pick up a southwest flow out of the Azores ahead and along the approaching front.

Here’s how the ECMWF surface charts are looking through the next 10 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Sun aft/eve into Mon system.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s that system from the 500mb anomaly perspective!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

That feature clears into the North Sea and high pressure develops over the UK bringing that cool but sunny set up but just look at the low spinning up to our west!

It’s tough to say exactly when it’s front will bring us the wind and rain, depends on the strength of the high over us.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly, BOTH GFS and ECMWF have the wet, windy weather now pushing in as early as Thursday if not later Wednesday.

ECMWF

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Expect heavy frequent showers along with longer spells of rain and brisk winds late week into the weekend.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF appears to develop another low along the front of the mother low and looks to contain some heavy, persist rain which pushes into the UK. Long way out but this bears watching.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Then the main low appears to come right in by Sunday (216 hrs) and if this was to be right, we could face flooding rain and widespread WSW gales.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

By the time we get out to 240 hrs or a week on Monday, that deep low is just north of Scotland bringing drier weather but very strong NW winds. Looks to be a cold flow.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

10-day precipitation forecast off ECMWF.

ecmwfued-null--europe-240-A-totalqpf

This certainly fits my mid and late autumn forecast.

2 metre temps off ECMWF for day 3-10 show the UK between below normal out in the Atlantic to above over Europe. Near ave for us.

ecmwfued-tmp--europe-240-A-2mtempanom_7d

As expected the trough in the 3-10 day mean now encompasses the UK so we are more unsettled than settled.

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-240-A-500hgtanom_7d

As you can see from the latest NAO forecast, there’s more of a struggle back to neutral or positive. I thought this might happen.

nao_sprd2

NO VIDEO today.

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