Cool, Rainy Days For MS/TN Valley & Big Western Snow Coming Up… Bahamas Hurricane?

Written by on October 10, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

The troughs are still on the table with the first coming down this weekend into early next week while the secondary swings into the Pacific Northwest mid to late next week. ECMWF has weakened it’s intensity but has more snowfall in the mountains than the GFS which has the deeper trough. Yes, as usual, there’s confliction! Meanwhile the CFSv2 drops the red paint bomb. TOO WARM across pretty much ALL of the US despite these troughs coming down.

What will be noteworthy about the first trough, a reaction from the earlier typhoon recurve over Japan, will be the drop in temperature from the record values seen in recent days. Both Dallas and Fort Worth witnessed their hottest October days since 1979 and by next Tuesday, it may drop into the 40s in the suburbs (low 50s in town) with highs only climbing into the low 60s. Quite the shock.

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That trough cuts off with heights really building to the north. We’ll have a big cold pool covering a large swath of the East with a core over Memphis where it may stay in the 50s or 60s for a good 2-4 days but may be up to 10 degrees warmer up in Ontario while the second trough sweeps heavy snows into British Columbia.

Then we’ve got the second big trough.

GFS snowfall next 7 days doesn’t make sense with it’s 500mb height pattern.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF (0-7)

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Notice the big snowfall the model prints out across the Canadian Prairies day 7-10 with some extending into ND and MN!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As I’ve already pointed out, the ECMWF is weaker with the second trough while GFS is stronger but shows less snow for the Cascades and Rockies. This system should bring big low level rains and wind but contains some pretty cold air for this early which brings 1-2 FEET of snow above say 6,000ft.

ECMWF 500mb height anomalies.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS. Has lower heights coming into PNW.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

While it probably won’t be anything particularly major in the PNW I do think temps will be 10-15 below normal for a day or two with snow levels down to 1,000ft with big totals above 6,000ft.

Impressive rainfall over PNW and MS/TN Valleys next 5 days.

p168i

As for the tropics. Well the ECMWF is seeing mischief. Note the closed isobars associated with a system the model has initially over the eastern islands of the Caribbean which becomes a hurricane near Bermuda at 240 hrs.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Given the two troughs coming down next 10 days, the week 1-2 temps off the CFSv2 don’t make sense and seen overdone with the warmth week 3-4. Sure it may warm up but to the below intensity and across ALL of the country? I highly doubt it.

wk1_wk2_20141008_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20141008_NAsfcT

Be sure to watch today’s US video for more.

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