WESTERN EUROPE: October Playing Catch Up From Record Dry September

Written by on October 7, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The first big blow of the autumn was an impressive one with peak gusts topping 122 mph over Cairngorm while low level South Uist gusted to 84. This morning it’s not much better over the Northern Isles with Lerwick gusting to 69 mph while it was cold and clear over much of the mainland with dense fog for many.

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We’re now in a classic autumn pattern with a wet, -NAO setup. The train of low is active and our next system arrives as early as tomorrow, starting wet and windy across much of the Republic, Wales and England with gales at the coast, heavy, persistent rain for most, especially over the hills where totals will mount up.

As stated in this morning’s video. The good thing about this pattern is the lows are reasonably spaced so it’s no a hyper active low pressure pattern like we saw last winter BUT that may come once we get into November.

With the jet stream to our south and a cold pocket aloft, watch out in between lows where skies clear and winds drop off, you may want to have the ice scraper handy as many away from the major towns and cities are likely to experience frost, especially into next week when it appears high pressure may settle over us for a few days until the next low hits around mid next week.

GFS surface charts through 192 hrs.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As for the longer term, well we’ve a battle. Here’s the ECMWF 500mb height anomalies day 3-10.

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-240-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

GFS has a negative the upcoming 7 days but check out the 9-16 day. Big positive. That would indicate a positive NAO signal which I don’t see at the moment.

gfs-hgt--europe-168-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

gfs384-hgt--europe-384-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

I recon the NAO is hold negative, thus holding the current trough pattern for us.

nao_sprd2

See video for more!

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