Extreme Pattern Brings California Heat, Rockies Snow, Plains Severe Weather…

Written by on October 3, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

I touched on the tanking of the AO and NAO in this morning’s Europe post and video but here’s a great graphic produced by Ralph Fato on just how rare this ‘tanking’ is if it comes off.

Credit: Ralph Fato

Credit: Ralph Fato

What may this mean for the US in October? More extreme weather such as the extreme amplification of the pattern we’re currently seeing develop for this weekend.

Just look at that ridge-trough setup which will support mid July heat wave conditions in California where it snows in Minnesota. We’re seeing sticking snow in many western parts of Montana today.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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With a tightly wound, sub 988 low over Ontario, you’ve got extremes across the Lower 48 with record heat in California, heavy snow in parts of Montana while flooding rains and severe weather break out on the Plains.

ECMWF surface maps through 36 hrs.

ecmwfued---conus-24-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Severe weather has and is breaking out as of this writing.

day1otlk_2000

Model suggests big snows over Ontario thanks to that 988 low.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This was the scene in Montana this morning.

Credit: NWS

Credit: NWS

Yep, it sure was cold in the Colorado Rockies. Look at Berthoud Pass LATE AFTERNOON.

Credit: Chris Spears

Credit: Chris Spears

In contrast, we’re talking record heat in Southern California. Upper 90s for several spots in and around the LA Basin. Saturday is considered one of the hottest days and the below forecasted highs may be conservative.

Credit: NWS

Credit: NWS

Interestingly by mid to late next week the trough is replaced by a ridge and warmer than normal air once again.

ecmwfued-hgt--conus-168-A-500hgtanom_white

ecmwfued-hgt--conus-216-A-500hgtanom_white

CFSv2 shows the cold coming down and across only to be followed by more warmth.

wk1_wk2_20140930_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140930_NAsfcT

Continues to fit my overall thinking for this month and remainder of fall which is cold with snow in the Rockies, possibly the Plains but warmer than normal in the East.

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