UK/EUROPE: Autumn Finally Catching Up With Calendar Following Driest Sept On Record

Written by on September 30, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It looks like September ends as driest on record or since 1911 for the UK. No real surprise given there was no recovery to wetter during the second half of the month.

Well as the old saying goes, nothing last’s forever and in the world of weather and our atmosphere, a pattern will only last so long before nature turns things around. Nature will always find balance and never go beyond it’s own limits.

As we end September on a dry and rather tranquil note, we have quite a different weather pattern to open October. We’re about to loose our endless summer and finally enter autumn despite loosing that first month. Summer is about to end with a deep Icelandic low winding up and ready to swing a rather potent front our way.

Here’s the ECMWF sea level pressure chart Thursday. It’s a truly textbook positive NAO with 960 low near Iceland vs a 1030 high over the North Sea. By this time next week, expect the opposite!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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The front will pass SE over the UK during Friday introducing us to autumn for the first time. Expect gales and heavy rain across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland but probably more blustery with heavy showers across England and Wales as I think this front may weaken some as it tracks SSE. Behind the front is a much fresher, chilly NW air flow.

Check out the sea level pressure difference between the above (Thursday) and this day next week.

Here’s Sunday

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Next Tuesday

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Wow, check out the surface map for 168!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Note the high builds over the North Atlantic into Greenland, heralding a negative NAO pattern next week while low pressure brings cool, wet and windy weather to the UK, Ireland and West Europe mainland.

Winds will really blow at sea between Scotland and Iceland with the model seeing 70 knot or 80 mph gusts. We could see 60 mph gusts over NW Scotland, 30-40 through the Central Belt as the front passes through.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here comes the heavy rain.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Yep, some decent moisture heading our way next 10 days!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Remember way back at the end of July I stated that we would get a switch in the dry, warm pattern but it was tough to say when. Of course we did see a switch to cooler and wetter in August but the June-July pattern came roaring back this month. I always thought that when you get warm, dry summer’s here, the pattern is slow to flip and you more often than not get good September’s with plenty more summer. Well the switch coming is probably the switch I meant and by that I mean a permanent switch a break in the long established ridge dominant pattern. Sure we’ll get good days in October and November but these days will likely be within a cooler, wetter regime.

ECMWF 500mb height anomalies day 3-10.

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-240-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

As heights lower and the air cools, watch that warmer than normal water around us. This may fuel flooding rains later down the road.

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