US OUTLOOK: Mild West To East Flow To Rule Into Early/Mid October

Written by on September 26, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

With both NAO and AO positive, the zonal, Pacific flow pattern rules next 2, possibly 3 weeks across the US.

nao_fcst

ao_fcst

This day 3-10 500mb height anomaly chart says it all.

ecmwfued-hgt--conus-240-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

Expect above normal temps with west to east flow.

ecmwfued-tmp--conus-240-A-2mtempanom_7d_white

CFSv2 has the same idea for October in it’s 200mb height anomaly. Note the negative over Greenland representing to positive NAO.

glbz200MonInd1

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November too but notice there’s less negative over Greenland.

glbz200MonInd2

Should see the positive over eastern NA slide to where the negative is over Greenland by winter!

In today’s post I want to look at the 500mb height charts and show you the trough being carved out over the West which should cool things down all the way to Southern California, Nevada and Arizona with showers possible but further east and that cool down never makes it. A monster, summer-like ridge is currently frying the N Plains up into southern Canada with highs the past couple of days reaching the low, mid or even upper 90s. A front drops south over the next few days reducing the heat but the Western trough and associated chill weakens and never makes it into the East next week. More Pacific air floods east and so the mild zonal flow shall keep things mild to next 10 days at least.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

72 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

168 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

192 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

222 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Note the cut off low over the Southern Plains. This could be a significant Texas, Arkansas rainmaker.

The below surface charts shows another Southeast, East Coast rain event early next week.

ecmwfued---conus-72-A-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---conus-96-A-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---conus-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Taking tomorrow off to spend with the family but will have a full update Sunday.

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