Atlantic Becoming Very Stormy But Europe Is Protected By Blocking High!

Written by on September 26, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Thanks to a steep pressure gradient between a 960 Norwegian Sea low and 1024 high over southern England, winds are blowing hard out of the west across the Northern UK, even stronger up over Orkney, Shetland and the Faroe Isles. It’s a classic autumnal feel, a good old leaf stripper while southern England and Wales try to hold onto summer. Check out the ECMWF sea level pressure chart and notice the tightening of the isobars.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF supports 55 knot winds NNW of Scotland and these are producing 25ft seas.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

When you look at the surface pressure chart from North America to Europe, there’s a strong to gale-force wind blowing almost straight east from Newfoundland to Scotland. Couldn’t get much more of a zonal flow than that! Jet stream is blowing hard too.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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I’ve no changes to the upcoming 1-2 week pattern. The North Atlantic becomes stormier while high pressure remains anchored over Europe thanks to the positive NAO.

In the grand scheme of things, the blocking high will protect southern parts of the UK as well as much of the continent while Atlantic lows deepen and pass to the north between Scotland and Iceland. Folks up here in Scotland as well as Northern Ireland can expect spells of wind and rain with gales becoming more frequent but when ridging pops in between passing fronts, expect some decent warmth. Low 20s are likely not done with Scotland yet, especially as the model has a 1032 high building in from the Azores a week from now.

ECMWF surface through the next 7 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS Ensemble strengthens the mean ridge over Western and Northern Europe day 7 through 16 which strongly hints are a rather tranquil first half to October.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly the GFS operational takes the mean temps well below normal for the majority of the mainland week 2 into 3.

gfs384-tmp--europe-336-A-2mtempanom_7d_white

gfs384-tmp--europe-384-A-2mtempanom_7d_white

See video for discussion.

No post or video tomorrow. Full update will be available on Sunday!

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