US Long Range: CFSv2 Shifting Colder For Winter, Reflecting Modoki El Nino Signal

Written by on September 25, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

The new run of the CFSv2 for winter has interesting changes.

While the red paint bomb was dropped on the winter across much of the continent, it’s now looking like the model is trending towards a more weak to moderate El Nino style winter.

It’s safe to say that the El Nino is coming on but not strong by any means.

nino34Mon

CFSv2 persists with having the warm pool well out into the central Pacific. The trough should go to that cold patch over the north-central Pacific and the ridge over the warm in the Gulf of Alaska while the warm off California should activate a healthy southern branch jet which brings a wet winter to California.

glbSSTMonInd3

The model is now finally shrinking and shifting the positive west and north while cold is now appearing over the Southeast. Given SST’s, type of nino etc, I expect the blues to expand over the south and east is coming weeks and months. This new run fits more the central Pacific based nino with warm northeast Pacific too as seen by the model for weeks, even months now.

Latest 200mb height charts for October through February…. Warmth will rule October and November with either ridging or a zonal Pacific flow crossing the country.

glbz200MonInd1

glbz200MonInd2

Temp anomalies for Oct-Nov fit my fall forecast!

usT2mMonInd1

usT2mMonInd2

Notice the shift in upper heights come winter!

glbz200MonInd3

glbz200MonInd4

glbz200MonInd5

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Now take a look at the below shift in temp anomaly over the US.

Old December

usT2mMonInd3

New December

usT2mMonInd3

Old January

usT2mMonInd4

New January

usT2mMonInd4

Old February

usT2mMonInd5

New February

usT2mMonInd5

Come winter, while I think we’ve frequent shows of arctic air into the heart of the country, an active southern jet should make for a pretty stormy winter across the South up through the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with snow potentially 150+% above normal while it’s below normal in the northern tier say from Billings to Detroit, maybe as far east as Boston.

It’s still a long way to go and my official winter forecast won’t be released till late October/early November but I will expect to see a trend to the above new runs of the CFSv2. The upcoming season could deliver quite the winter just like last year for a large swath stretching from the Plains to East Coast.

See video for today’s discussion.

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