EUROPE: Warmth Continues Into October But Rain Becomes More Of A Player

Written by on September 24, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The latest CFSv2 weeklies are out and they want to hold the mean ridge over the UK and Ireland through most of October.

wk1_wk2_20140920_z500

wk3_wk4_20140920_z500

CFSv2 for October

euT2mMonInd1

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As you can see it shows wetter than normal!

euPrecMonInd1

The Southern half of the UK down into the near continent should stay much drier than normal given the lows pass north of Scotland and so the wettest, windiest weather should always be further north.

Look at the projected forecast above to October 2009.

Credit: Crown/Met Office

Credit: Crown/Met Office

However this doesn’t mean it will be as dry as September’s been. I think the pattern the ECMWF is suggesting as shown in this morning’s video and in the below surface charts, is how next month will playout. In other word’s we do have systems passing to our north but associated cold front’s will bring spells of wind and rain. In between each system which passes say every 2-4 days, well significant height rises look to occur. With southerly air flows come unusual warmth.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See this morning’s video for discussion.

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