+NAO Supports Cold Greenland, Warm Europe To End September!

Written by on September 23, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Winter may seem like a million miles away from the UK these days but it’s not for some.

I showed you evidence just 2 days ago that snow was present in northern Sweden. Here’s what part’s of Finland are waking to this morning.

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Another spot dealing with winter these days is Summit Camp in the Greenland interior.

Thanks to a zonal flow in the past 2-3 days, low pressure has brought wind, snow and blowing snow with big falls for many parts of this vast ice cap.

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With a current neutral NAO, this supports a series of systems pushing through the UK in the next 3-5 days but a but the index flips dramatically positive next week which means Greenland turns very cold with possibly the first -40s while ridging builds back over the UK and much of Europe.

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Note the negative and positive sliding east through the next 120 hours.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

96 hrs

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

144 hrs

gfs-hgt--world-144-A-500hgtanom_white

This shift fro zonal to ridging is very evident in the surface maps.

Remember, it’s more into early next week that the high builds. The end of this week and probably the weekend looks quite wet at times as well as windy.

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gfs---europe-96-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-144-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-168-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Expect the warmer than normal theme to continue into October and November but the biggest change coming should be the turn to wetter conditions as the ridge eventually becomes the trough.

Tough to say when we’ll turn a lot wetter because October can be tricky but when the switch takes place (likely month’s end) it could be dramatic with flooding becoming an issue into November. Remember there’s a lot of warm water surrounding us that could feedback to the atmosphere.

See today’s video for the discussion.

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