US LONG RANGE: Ridging Or Pacific Air To Dominate Next 3-6 Weeks, Tropics Worth Watching!

Written by on September 20, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

ECMWF day 3-10

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

With strongest positive up in Canada, heights are naturally lower further south, possibly below normal in the waters off the S & E coast. That’s when you have to watch the tropics for any mischief. Here’s the latest GFS ens MJO forecast.



Phase 8 into 1 favours the warm Eastern pattern into October.


In terms on increased convection within the Western Atlantic Basin, the MJO does appear favourable in the later half of the upcoming 15 day period. gfs

Highly tranquil week of weather coming up for the Eastern two thirds!








Rain is sparse in much of the East beneath the ridge but plentiful right on the coast and just offshore as well as in the Intermountain West/PNW!


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As we head for October, the PNA is trending from strong positive to neutral if not negative and this supports the warm or mild east with either a ridge or zonal flow which floods the country with Pacific air.


CFSv2 week 1-4 or right up till October 17 shows warmth dominating the East.



CFSv2 temp anomaly for October!


As for the bigger picture which doesn’t impact the US now but will later down the road… the AO is heading positive. This will ensure ‘building’ of cold as sea ice increases and days grow shorter. WE WANT to see a +AO in fall because this means cold air can build and there’s plenty of it, if and when the upper air pattern wants to shove it south!


Having issues uploading video. Hope to have one tomorrow.

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