Atlantic To Become More Involved In Europe Pattern Next Week On

Written by on September 18, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We have plenty of warm, humid air around across particularly southern parts of the UK into the near continent but as energy lifts north from the Azores low, expect an increase in thunderstorm development later today into particularly tomorrow with off and on showers extending into the weekend.

As for today, the big day for Scotland, it looks like the greatest chance of showers will be further north over Scotland where there’s a frontal zone nearby. These will be scattered. Some will miss them altogether. Won’t be a bad day for your stroll to the poll. Considerably cooler up here compared to southern parts where highs may approach 26, maybe 27C around the outskirts of London.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Notice the greens appear more tomorrow over southern England and Wales.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

According to the ECMWF ridging builds in BRIEFLY late weekend into Monday, maybe Tuesday of next week but there’s a significant shift in the upper height field with ridging being replaced by troughiness NNW of the UK. That suggests a much more free, west-east flow and the disappearance of the blocking high which brought our driest start to Sep in over 50 years.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the pretty strong WESTERLY by Tuesday-Wednesday next week. Won’t be cold but looks breezy and at times, wet.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the GFS ensemble 500mb height shift between week 1 and 2.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

gefs-hgt--europe-336-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

CFSv2 weekly shows the negative returning with zonal flow into mid-Oct.

wk1_wk2_20140916_z500

wk3_wk4_20140916_z500

The CFSv2 has this kind of upper projection for October.

glbz200MonInd1

Wetter than normal and November I believe should see increase in rainfall over the UK and near continent.

euPrecMonInd1

BE SURE TO WATCH THIS MORNING’S VIDEO FOR SOME LONGER RANGE THOUGHTS!

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