Southwest Flood Threat, Calif Heatwave, Ontario Snow… What Next?

As posted yesterday, there’s a lot of tropical moisture streaming into the interior Southwest over the next 96 hours thanks to Odile.

Firstly, here’s the latest track of now tropical depression Odile.


No change in projected rain amounts. Still scary for SSE Arizona, WSW New Mexico.


If the system makes it over the AZ border as a depression, I believe this would be the first since 1997 and only the 9th since 1965.

Credit: Ginger Zee

Credit: Ginger Zee

Here’s an earlier view from a soggy Tucson, AZ.

Credit: WeatherBug

Credit: WeatherBug

California Heatwave

Meanwhile in Southwest California, the hottest weather of summer is gripping.

Check out the blue sky and blazing sun in Huntington Beach, CA.

Credit: WeatherBug

Credit: WeatherBug

It got to 103 in Downtown LA yesterday while 100s dominated the region.

Credit: LA Times/National Weather Service

Credit: LA Times/National Weather Service

Ontario Snow

Meanwhile up in Ontario, this was the scene around Geraldton this morning where 4cm of SNOW fell overnight!

Photo Credit: Stephen Wilson (@GeraldtonSteve

Photo Credit: Stephen Wilson (@GeraldtonSteve

Credit: CBC

Credit: CBC

Cold night ahead with below freezing for most of Ontario and Quebec. Record cold possible where snow is on the ground.


It’s anything but snowy across in British Columbia…

Credit: The Weather Network

Credit: The Weather Network

Another Baja Threat?

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The Baja needs to watch newly formed Tropical Storm Polo!


Unlikely to cause any significant issues with land but worth watching anyway.

US: Rest Of September & Beyond…

Up till just a few days ago, September has been a warm month over the East but a flip has occurred. The cool high currently in place comfortable, fall-like humidity looks likely to stick around.

That dry, still air has allowed night’s to turn distinctly fall-like over the Northeast interior and Friday morning stands out as a particularly cool night over Upstate New York into New England. The GFS has temperatures widely dropping into the 30s with 20s in many New England valleys.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Surface high builds.


Here’s the CFSv2 for the next 4 weeks. Note the big warm-up it has for early October.



For October I have a warm, wet East, cool to cold western Plains/Rockies and remaining warm over drought-stricken California and Great Basin.

Similar to what the CFSv2 has



Similar in November (like 2009)



THIS for winter!


I feel pretty confident (more so than Europe) that winter will be another harsh one east of the Rockies given the global pattern and central Pacific nino.

See video for discussion.

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