Southwest Flood Threat, Calif Heatwave, Ontario Snow… What Next?

As posted yesterday, there’s a lot of tropical moisture streaming into the interior Southwest over the next 96 hours thanks to Odile.

Firstly, here’s the latest track of now tropical depression Odile.

115157W5_NL_sm

No change in projected rain amounts. Still scary for SSE Arizona, WSW New Mexico.

p120i

If the system makes it over the AZ border as a depression, I believe this would be the first since 1997 and only the 9th since 1965.

Credit: Ginger Zee

Credit: Ginger Zee

Here’s an earlier view from a soggy Tucson, AZ.

Credit: WeatherBug

Credit: WeatherBug

California Heatwave

Meanwhile in Southwest California, the hottest weather of summer is gripping.

Check out the blue sky and blazing sun in Huntington Beach, CA.

Credit: WeatherBug

Credit: WeatherBug

It got to 103 in Downtown LA yesterday while 100s dominated the region.

Credit: LA Times/National Weather Service

Credit: LA Times/National Weather Service

Ontario Snow

Meanwhile up in Ontario, this was the scene around Geraldton this morning where 4cm of SNOW fell overnight!

Photo Credit: Stephen Wilson (@GeraldtonSteve

Photo Credit: Stephen Wilson (@GeraldtonSteve

Credit: CBC

Credit: CBC

Cold night ahead with below freezing for most of Ontario and Quebec. Record cold possible where snow is on the ground.

gfs-TMP2m--canada-21-A-tmp2mf5

It’s anything but snowy across in British Columbia…

Credit: The Weather Network

Credit: The Weather Network

Another Baja Threat?

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The Baja needs to watch newly formed Tropical Storm Polo!

173604W5_NL_sm

Unlikely to cause any significant issues with land but worth watching anyway.

US: Rest Of September & Beyond…

Up till just a few days ago, September has been a warm month over the East but a flip has occurred. The cool high currently in place comfortable, fall-like humidity looks likely to stick around.

That dry, still air has allowed night’s to turn distinctly fall-like over the Northeast interior and Friday morning stands out as a particularly cool night over Upstate New York into New England. The GFS has temperatures widely dropping into the 30s with 20s in many New England valleys.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Surface high builds.

gfs---usne-69-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Here’s the CFSv2 for the next 4 weeks. Note the big warm-up it has for early October.

wk1_wk2_20140915_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140915_NAsfcT

For October I have a warm, wet East, cool to cold western Plains/Rockies and remaining warm over drought-stricken California and Great Basin.

Similar to what the CFSv2 has

usT2mMonInd1

usPrecMonInd1

Similar in November (like 2009)

usT2mMonInd2

usPrecMonInd2

THIS for winter!

BxaAQ1qCAAAeMmJ

I feel pretty confident (more so than Europe) that winter will be another harsh one east of the Rockies given the global pattern and central Pacific nino.

See video for discussion.

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