Both Jamstec and CFSv2 show a warm fall for much of the US with warmest on both coasts with cool in the middle but head into winter and they go their separate ways. In fact one could argue that they go to the extreme.
Jamstec fall temps
CFSv2 fall temps
Interestingly both models have almost identical global water temperature anomalies with the central Pacific based El Nino, warm pool over the northeast Pacific and the classic tripole of warm-cold-warm in the North Atlantic which with the now easterly QBO should support a greater chance of Greenland blocking.
CFSv2
Jamstec
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Although water temperatures are very alike, look at the difference in rainfall distribution for the Dec-Feb period.
Jamstec
CFSv2
Both models go the opposite way precipitation wise despite similar global SST’s and that CENTRAL Pacific or Modoki El Nino. CFSv2 goes with wet West, dry Southeast. Jamstec has dry West, wet Southeast. If you thought the CFSv2 had more of an in close to South America warm pool and stronger El Nino look, you would be right when going by the below winter temps.
Dec-Feb period
Jamstec has the kind of cold look which fits both CFSv2 and Jamstec SST anomaly distribution with central Pacific El Nino.
Shorter Term
Here are the latest CFSv2 temperature anomalies for the next 4 weeks.. Chill slides east but warmth returns to East!
Interestingly the GFS ensemble shows a persistent POSITIVE PNA which supports more of a western ridge/eastern trough.
Yet CFSv2 looks like this for October.
Warm water off the coast is likely to ‘help’ hold up dew points and therefore temps along the EC, especially at night.
SEE VIDEO FOR DISCUSSION…
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