Jamstec Is Opposite The CFSv2 For Upcoming US Winter!

Written by on September 13, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Both Jamstec and CFSv2 show a warm fall for much of the US with warmest on both coasts with cool in the middle but head into winter and they go their separate ways. In fact one could argue that they go to the extreme.

Jamstec fall temps

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CFSv2 fall temps

usT2mSeaInd1

Interestingly both models have almost identical global water temperature anomalies with the central Pacific based El Nino, warm pool over the northeast Pacific and the classic tripole of warm-cold-warm in the North Atlantic which with the now easterly QBO should support a greater chance of Greenland blocking.

CFSv2

glbSSTSeaInd3

Jamstec

ssta_glob_DJF2015_1aug2014

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Although water temperatures are very alike, look at the difference in rainfall distribution for the Dec-Feb period.

Jamstec

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CFSv2

usPrecSeaInd3

Both models go the opposite way precipitation wise despite similar global SST’s and that CENTRAL Pacific or Modoki El Nino. CFSv2 goes with wet West, dry Southeast. Jamstec has dry West, wet Southeast. If you thought the CFSv2 had more of an in close to South America warm pool and stronger El Nino look, you would be right when going by the below winter temps.

usT2mMonInd3

usT2mMonInd4

usT2mMonInd5

Dec-Feb period

usT2mSeaInd3

Jamstec has the kind of cold look which fits both CFSv2 and Jamstec SST anomaly distribution with central Pacific El Nino.

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Shorter Term

Here are the latest CFSv2 temperature anomalies for the next 4 weeks.. Chill slides east but warmth returns to East!

wk1_wk2_20140911_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140911_NAsfcT

Interestingly the GFS ensemble shows a persistent POSITIVE PNA which supports more of a western ridge/eastern trough.

pna_sprd2

Yet CFSv2 looks like this for October.

CFSv2_NaT2m_20140913_201410

Warm water off the coast is likely to ‘help’ hold up dew points and therefore temps along the EC, especially at night.

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SEE VIDEO FOR DISCUSSION…

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