EUROPE: Comparing Jamstec With CFSv2 For Autumn & Winter!

Written by on September 13, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Jamstec has the warm/wet Sep-Nov period I’ve had since mid summer.

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Jamstec is going with warm/wet Europe but colder NW UK/Ireland winter (close call?) Note the very dry N Atlantic. Model seeing a Greenland block?

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The QBO was strong westerly back last winter and I’ve given my reasons why this was the case and brought our warm, stormy winter. But, for the first time in over a year we’ve now got an easterly QBO now as you can see from this 50hpa total zonal wind chart below.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

What does this mean? A greater likelihood of sudden stratospheric warming events which leads to strong Arctic/N Atlantic blocking highs and the below CFSv2 forecast coming true.

cfs-8-12-2014

cfs-8-1-2015

cfs-8-2-2015

The below SST’s projected for winter also supports N Atlantic and Northeast Pacific blocking but let’s not forget the important positioning of the warm water associated with the El Nino (central) which should all support cold plunges into the eastern US and Western Europe.

CFSv2

glbSSTSeaInd3

Jamstec

ssta_glob_DJF2015_1aug2014

Does this mean a cold winter is a given? Not necessarily but it’s interesting!

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