Europe Outlook: A Stuck Pattern, When The Breakdown?

Written by on September 9, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been a splendid day here in Co Down, NI with lot’s of warm sunshine. Several folks I bumped into today spoke about the 10 days of sunshine we had ahead of us. High pressure perhaps and settled perhaps too but sunshine? I think it’ll come and go and a lot depends on where you are.

The current stuck, blocky, even boring pattern we’re currently in and have been in for about a good week now, looks set to continues through at least another 7, perhaps 10 days.

When it’s settled with high pressure dominanting, I’m trying to find the breakdown and timing of course. The ECMWF tries to hold the ridge out to day 10 but the GFS in it’s 7-day mean 500mb height pattern shows the trough displacing the ridge day 8-14.

In forecasting terms, this is one of those pattern which you struggle find things of interest to talk about, something that captivates the reader. It’s boring when you read about high pressure, mix of sun and clouds and average to above average temps but that’s exactly what we’ve got. A fairly classic September regime. One we should enjoy while it’s here and looks to stay put through at least the next week.

As your well aware, despite anticipating a break in this pattern, the breakdown may be short and sweat as I recon the Sept-Oct pattern overall is fairly dry and warmer than normal.

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The unsettled to downright wild weather is all shunted off to our south and east.

Latest ECMWF surface charts through 240 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The day 3-10 off the ECMWF 500mb height anomalies show a banana ridge draped across Northern Europe including the UK and Ireland while low pressure persists underneath. Until that stone’s moved, all the weather systems will take a detour off to our south and that will keep the more typically sunny, settled spots, unsettled.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Though the ECMWF is just out through the next 10 days, the GFS shows the blocking ridge exiting NE into Scandinavia with the big trough that’s persistently held off to the SW moving in in the 8-14 and more so in the 9-16.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

gfs384-hgt--europe-384-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

In the next post I will take a look at the NAO and past data to see if there’s any connection between summer, autumn and upcoming winter.

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