EUROPE/USA: CFSv2 Upper Height Fields Eerily Reflective Of My Autumn/Winter Idea

Written by on September 7, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Since I’ve covered the short and medium range in recent days with high pressure ruling, I thought I would look at the longer term today and look at what the latest CFSv2 charts are showing with regard to autumn and winter.

It’s showing some interesting things.

Firstly the 200mb height anomaly chart which I don’t often show, has a great reflection of the current pattern across the hemisphere in it’s September outlook.

glbz200MonInd1

Considerably drier than normal.

euPrecMonInd1

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It continues with the same ridge-trough setup next month which I agree with.

glbz200MonInd2

Responds to another dry month.

euPrecMonInd2

I have it warm and increasingly wet in November!

glbz200MonInd3

euPrecMonInd3

Then the NE Canada-Greenland-N Atlantic blocking high shows for December, January, February with trough settling where the ridge is currently and where the wettest weather is late autumn (Nov)!

glbz200MonInd4

glbz200MonInd5

glbz200MonInd6

December Through February period!

glbz200SeaInd4

Moral is the story that the model is seeing my warm and late wet autumn followed by the turnaround for winter. Very interesting times ahead despite the boring pattern many of us have at the moment.

Projected SST’s and the Atlantic tripole along with modoki El Nino supports the above.

glbSSTSeaInd4

See video for discussion.

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