UK & W Europe: Warmer Than July/August Average…

Written by on September 4, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

While by no means unheard of, the high in Scotland this afternoon (esp where sun shines), should surpass the average for July never mind September.

As your well aware, we have a high pressure pattern currently in place and that primarily means settled and dry but as you can see, it doesn’t necessarily mean sunshine. It’s a mild air mass with highs comfortably surpassing September averages UK and Ireland-wide but where the sun shines, well highs are surpassing June-July and August averages.

While you typically look to urbanised Southeast England for the warmest temps and yes that’ll be the case this time around, we up here in Scotland are seeing nice unseasonable warmth too.

Fairly strong upper ridge currently centred over the North Sea is supporting the warm weather throughout Ireland and the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Here are projected highs and anomalies for this afternoon off the ECMWF.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro


Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Glasgow should get to around 21C today. That would be 3C above normal even in the height of summer, never mind the first week of meteorological autumn. But like I say, this isn’t that unusual.

It’s warm across Europe…

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Quite the contrast to what we saw towards the end of August when an unseasonably cool air mass settled in bringing all-time record August lows to NI, -2 at Braemar in Highland Scotland and -1-9C in Shap, Cumbria, only 0.9C above the all-time August record low for England.


Only have to glance at this to see why the turnaround!


By tomorrow, a front associated with an approaching low swings SE across Scotland bringing thicker cloud and some rain, marking a change for the weekend ahead.



This turn to slightly more unsettled is brief as a ridge out over the Atlantic moves in at the start of next week and looks to stand it’s ground much of next week.



Though quite often all over the place, thought Id show you the latest precip and temp anomalies projected by the CFSv2 now through January 2015. A few things stand out.







One thing which stands out is the big flip in precip between October and November. This fits my overall thinking that it turns much wetter towards the end of October into November. Also notice how it turns drier December into January.







Notice the major warmth into November and then it back’s off December, January with warming showing up over Greenland and Iceland.

See video for discussion!

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