Western Europe: Summer Makes Comeback As Meteorological Autumn Begins…

Written by on August 31, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Here’s the current view of our old friend Christobal spinning SW of Iceland this morning. Quite the wind machine over the N Atlantic for sure!

Source/Credit: Iceland Met Office

Source/Credit: Iceland Met Office

Note much of the UK is clear and sunny with temps climbing to 21C as far north as Highland Scotland this afternoon.

Christobal is impressive on the windstream!

Source/Credit: MeteoEarth

Source/Credit: MeteoEarth

That system fades north of Iceland this week leaving behind a far stronger height field across Europe which will bring a return of summer to many including Ireland, UK and much of the Western continent. Following the battering former Hurricane Bertha brought to the UK, our pattern abruptly flipped to a much cooler, wetter and unsettled theme through pretty much all of August. However, another former hurricane (Christobal) will bring summer back to us for perhaps much of September!

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Took the below picture Friday in Inverness. Expect plenty of this mild or warm sunshine over the next 10 days!

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Here’s the Europe upper heights/temp/wind charts through the upcoming 10 days off the ECMWF. On the whole it’s a settled, sunny outlook through the first half of September. Great if your taking a vacation.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Model have cut off low over the SW UK next Saturday before pressures build again, become pretty strong into early and mid NEXT WEEK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart through the next week to 10 days. Gives a better view as to what we can expect down here at ground level.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Based on the first half of September, it’s looking warmer and drier than normal for the UK and much of West and North Europe.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

CFSv2 shows much of Europe drier than normal in September then it turns wetter for October and November.

euPrecMonInd1

euPrecMonInd2

euPrecMonInd3

CFSv2 Temps (anomaly)

cfs-8-9-2014

cfs-8-10-2014

cfs-8-11-2014

I recon we’ve a mixed pattern come later September through October but may turn increasingly wet into November. Similar to late autumn 2009, given warm water, El Nino etc.

The Jamstec has the warm/wet autumn I’m expecting.

Autumn water temp anomalies

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Precip

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Temp

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As for winter, the model has warmed Europe more than earlier runs but still shows W, N UK colder than normal. VERY cold over the United States!

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See video for discussion!

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