If Only It Were Winter!

Written by on August 18, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

If only it were winter, THIS pattern would be perfect for cold and snow lovers.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

nao_fcst

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Nice strong blocking high over southern Greenland which the core of this pretty deep trough is centred over the North Sea!

The blocky nature of the current pattern means a slow eastward progression with N Atlantic ridging building in mid week, helping kick into Scandinavia the North Sea low with it’s cold, backwide N winds sweeping late summer arctic air into the UK. It’s a cool but more settled mid to late week period but that nagging northerly flow returns briefly by Friday into the early weekend before a new Atlantic low appears to approach the UK from SW through the weekend. (According to ECMWF)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ecmwfued---europe-168-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Looking ahead, the NAO appears to remain firmly negative through the remainder of August with the ECMWF showing a negative over the UK, positive over S Greenland through the 27th.

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-240-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

ECM Control carries the same pattern through Sep 1.

ecmwfa1ec-hgt--europe-336-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

ecmwfa1ec-hgt--europe-360-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

While this may be a good sign for the longer term, I want to emphasize. Given many great winter’s including 09-10 and previous (1960s, 70) had more often that not, downward solar trends, weak El Ninos and-NAO trends in late summer/autumn, there’s often a burst back to positive. MANY often panic, thinking that’s it! We saw a warm, very wet November and then winter hit hard and held from around Dec 15/18th on. Keep that in mind!

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