The latest CFSv2 weeklies (through Sep 12) shows Greenland ridge/western Europe trough dominance through mid Sep.
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This NORTH ATLANTIC blocking trend is something WE DIDN’T see at this time last year. However, for all you snow geese out there like myself, let’s not get over excited but merely watching this pattern as we head into autumn and eventually winter. I like what I’m seeing though. Matches the reaction of a weak nino in a solar downturn. That is more easterly QBO which results in more Atlantic blocking.
Last summer/autumn/winter was a strong westerly QBO which resulted in strong westerlies or jet stream winds across the Atlantic.
Below chart shows the weakening of the westerlies and trend towards easterlies which supports more stratospheric warming events and we all know what that means!
Strong westerly QBO of last winter can be directly linked to the solar max, albeit a very weak max.
The thing is, though solar max’s and min’s can be linked to warm and cold winter’s, the question is, because solar cycle 24 has been so weak and less than the previous by quite the margin, do we get a stronger positive over Greenland and consequential negative over the UK/West Europe.
The cold/snowy winter of 2009-10 and start to 2010-11 occurred during a solar minimum but this winter is just coming off a max. However, it’s coming off a WEAKER max and so it’s going to be VERY interesting as to what result that may have.
A weak El Nino often supports a colder winter for Europe and we have a strikingly similar nino status to 2009.
Here’s the QBO chart I showed yesterday also. Want to show you it again.
QBO data which dates back to 1979.
Note the high positive figures so no blocking and strong troughiness over Greenland/N Atlantic, westerly winds or ridging over W Europe, low negative numbers like in 2009-10 represent strong N Atlantic/Greenland blocking and deep negatives over West Europe. Last year it was positives but notice the negatives starting to appear of late…
30 mb zonal wind index – CDAS
ORIGINAL DATA
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1979 1.85 4.11 0.87 -3.58 -12.91 -19.61 -21.28 -22.25 -22.71 -23.33 -22.21 -17.00
1980 -10.12 -5.66 -2.92 2.30 6.23 7.32 8.73 9.60 12.65 13.09 12.14 9.72
1981 8.21 6.71 7.50 8.27 3.00 -3.50 -5.24 -8.25 -8.60 -9.54 -9.63 -12.32
1982 -12.53 -14.72 -16.68 -15.56 -15.27 -15.95 -8.97 -1.60 4.19 8.26 9.50 10.34
1983 10.84 11.38 12.16 13.80 11.92 3.11 -3.40 -6.54 -7.76 -10.13 -10.30 -11.43
1984 -10.66 -11.35 -12.99 -14.59 -15.06 -17.98 -25.40 -27.91 -25.45 -21.60 -13.20 -8.17
1985 -0.38 4.16 6.35 11.10 13.55 13.88 11.09 11.07 11.70 11.83 11.62 9.87
1986 8.73 10.14 11.95 9.10 3.55 -2.17 -5.26 -9.61 -10.22 -9.61 -8.02 -10.52
1987 -9.94 -11.38 -14.24 -16.21 -20.06 -21.48 -13.97 -0.61 5.86 9.34 9.22 8.40
1988 7.80 6.16 5.85 6.58 5.45 0.41 -3.97 -2.59 -2.31 -1.54 -0.85 -2.44
1989 -2.88 -3.57 -1.64 -1.94 -5.47 -9.39 -13.87 -16.99 -18.84 -21.31 -19.02 -13.55
1990 -8.72 -6.75 0.94 5.71 11.45 12.89 12.53 12.62 13.20 12.38 11.54 10.67
1991 8.70 8.43 8.99 10.68 3.81 -3.35 -10.37 -14.70 -13.97 -12.22 -12.28 -12.69
1992 -13.97 -14.34 -16.85 -17.80 -15.97 -15.35 -12.06 -4.76 1.29 3.93 6.32 8.18
1993 9.62 10.79 11.35 12.59 13.55 6.54 0.37 -1.21 -1.15 -4.05 -5.77 -6.01
1994 -7.65 -9.85 -11.31 -14.72 -18.04 -23.09 -28.66 -27.03 -19.08 -10.30 -0.31 5.92
1995 8.37 8.00 8.78 11.78 14.91 15.61 11.73 9.50 6.97 3.42 -0.86 -4.65
1996 -5.80 -6.91 -9.94 -11.09 -14.89 -17.04 -23.94 -25.86 -26.03 -23.41 -18.09 -9.87
1997 -3.59 1.93 4.49 9.20 12.50 14.67 14.57 11.36 12.00 11.39 8.22 3.04
1998 0.74 -2.88 -4.99 -7.16 -12.56 -17.61 -22.62 -23.96 -20.99 -18.24 -13.29 -5.16
1999 1.40 3.97 6.79 12.14 15.05 15.18 13.42 12.26 11.29 9.43 6.54 5.82
2000 4.62 4.48 5.72 5.17 -0.30 -7.26 -13.25 -15.35 -15.49 -14.21 -14.57 -13.60
2001 -15.02 -14.84 -16.22 -17.29 -20.44 -23.01 -24.54 -21.68 -14.31 -10.83 -3.89 1.47
2002 4.63 7.99 9.31 14.02 14.15 13.25 10.05 10.59 8.89 7.66 4.45 -0.51
2003 -1.40 -1.45 -3.31 -8.57 -13.93 -17.72 -23.00 -24.65 -22.52 -20.35 -17.87 -11.39
2004 -4.84 2.60 5.45 10.45 12.96 11.75 9.95 8.81 7.21 7.83 4.40 2.26
2005 -0.46 -0.88 -0.34 -6.65 -15.10 -20.60 -24.21 -25.87 -27.81 -28.77 -29.55 -25.05
2006 -18.84 -11.25 -0.39 5.00 10.35 11.46 10.75 10.75 10.19 10.86 10.09 6.20
2007 2.60 2.42 1.24 -5.19 -14.07 -21.34 -24.93 -27.42 -28.15 -29.06 -27.61 -19.49
2008 -12.43 -4.71 2.18 6.42 11.52 13.45 13.26 11.62 11.59 11.04 9.12 10.46
2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.10 1.55 -5.48 -12.21 -14.46 -13.82 -11.70 -13.83 -15.57
2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.85 1.44 6.57 10.83 12.16 10.96
2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25
2012 -16.09 -15.26 -16.75 -17.63 -22.06 -25.90 -27.84 -27.94 -26.61 -24.51 -18.95 -10.03
2013 -6.07 -1.24 2.85 8.39 12.64 13.38 14.28 14.66 13.12 11.69 12.45 12.55
2014 13.13 12.68 11.71 7.14 -2.81 -13.98 -19.28-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
2015-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
2016-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
2017-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
2018-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
2019-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
2020-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99-999.99
30 mb zonal wind index – CDAS
ANOMALY
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1979 3.79 5.12 1.14 -3.61 -11.30 -15.10 -14.55 -15.55 -17.19 -18.71 -18.35 -14.04
1980 -8.18 -4.65 -2.65 2.27 7.84 11.83 15.46 16.30 18.17 17.71 16.00 12.68
1981 10.15 7.72 7.77 8.24 4.61 1.01 1.49 -1.55 -3.08 -4.92 -5.77 -9.36
1982 -10.59 -13.71 -16.41 -15.59 -13.66 -11.44 -2.24 5.10 9.71 12.88 13.36 13.30
1983 12.78 12.39 12.43 13.77 13.53 7.62 3.33 0.16 -2.24 -5.51 -6.44 -8.47
1984 -8.72 -10.34 -12.72 -14.62 -13.45 -13.47 -18.67 -21.21 -19.93 -16.98 -9.34 -5.21
1985 1.56 5.17 6.62 11.07 15.16 18.39 17.82 17.77 17.22 16.45 15.48 12.83
1986 10.67 11.15 12.22 9.07 5.16 2.34 1.47 -2.91 -4.70 -4.99 -4.16 -7.56
1987 -8.00 -10.37 -13.97 -16.24 -18.45 -16.97 -7.24 6.09 11.38 13.96 13.08 11.36
1988 9.74 7.17 6.12 6.55 7.06 4.92 2.76 4.11 3.21 3.08 3.01 0.52
1989 -0.94 -2.56 -1.37 -1.97 -3.86 -4.88 -7.14 -10.29 -13.32 -16.69 -15.16 -10.59
1990 -6.78 -5.74 1.21 5.68 13.06 17.40 19.26 19.32 18.72 17.00 15.40 13.63
1991 10.64 9.44 9.26 10.65 5.42 1.16 -3.64 -8.00 -8.45 -7.60 -8.42 -9.73
1992 -12.03 -13.33 -16.58 -17.83 -14.36 -10.84 -5.33 1.94 6.81 8.55 10.18 11.14
1993 11.56 11.80 11.62 12.56 15.16 11.05 7.10 5.49 4.37 0.57 -1.91 -3.05
1994 -5.71 -8.84 -11.04 -14.75 -16.43 -18.58 -21.93 -20.33 -13.56 -5.68 3.55 8.88
1995 10.31 9.01 9.05 11.75 16.52 20.12 18.46 16.20 12.49 8.04 3.00 -1.69
1996 -3.86 -5.90 -9.67 -11.12 -13.28 -12.53 -17.21 -19.16 -20.51 -18.79 -14.23 -6.91
1997 -1.65 2.94 4.76 9.17 14.11 19.18 21.30 18.06 17.52 16.01 12.08 6.00
1998 2.68 -1.87 -4.72 -7.19 -10.95 -13.10 -15.89 -17.26 -15.47 -13.62 -9.43 -2.20
1999 3.34 4.98 7.06 12.11 16.66 19.69 20.15 18.96 16.81 14.05 10.40 8.78
2000 6.56 5.49 5.99 5.14 1.31 -2.75 -6.52 -8.65 -9.97 -9.59 -10.71 -10.64
2001 -13.08 -13.83 -15.95 -17.32 -18.83 -18.50 -17.81 -14.98 -8.79 -6.21 -0.03 4.43
2002 6.57 9.00 9.58 13.99 15.76 17.76 16.78 17.29 14.41 12.28 8.31 2.45
2003 0.54 -0.44 -3.04 -8.60 -12.32 -13.21 -16.27 -17.95 -17.00 -15.73 -14.01 -8.43
2004 -2.90 3.61 5.72 10.42 14.57 16.26 16.68 15.51 12.73 12.45 8.26 5.22
2005 1.48 0.13 -0.07 -6.68 -13.49 -16.09 -17.48 -19.17 -22.29 -24.15 -25.69 -22.09
2006 -16.90 -10.24 -0.12 4.97 11.96 15.97 17.48 17.45 15.71 15.48 13.95 9.16
2007 4.54 3.43 1.51 -5.22 -12.46 -16.83 -18.20 -20.72 -22.63 -24.44 -23.75 -16.53
2008 -10.49 -3.70 2.45 6.39 13.13 17.96 19.99 18.32 17.11 15.66 12.98 13.42
2009 12.65 13.34 11.71 9.07 3.16 -0.97 -5.48 -7.76 -8.30 -7.08 -9.97 -12.61
2010 -14.08 -15.97 -19.41 -23.60 -24.67 -20.54 -3.12 8.14 12.09 15.45 16.02 13.92
2011 11.12 11.06 10.71 10.68 11.63 8.41 7.17 6.21 3.22 1.57 -5.23 -13.29
2012 -14.15 -14.25 -16.48 -17.66 -20.45 -21.39 -21.11 -21.24 -21.09 -19.89 -15.09 -7.07
2013 -4.13 -0.23 3.12 8.36 14.25 17.89 21.01 21.36 18.64 16.31 16.31 15.51
2014 15.07 13.69 11.98 7.11 -1.20 -9.47 -12.55-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
2015-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
2016-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
2017-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
2018-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
2019-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
2020-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
30 mb zonal wind index – CDAS
STANDARDIZED DATA
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1979 0.31 0.42 0.09 -0.29 -0.92 -1.23 -1.19 -1.27 -1.40 -1.52 -1.50 -1.14
1980 -0.67 -0.38 -0.22 0.19 0.64 0.96 1.26 1.33 1.48 1.44 1.30 1.03
1981 0.83 0.63 0.63 0.67 0.38 0.08 0.12 -0.13 -0.25 -0.40 -0.47 -0.76
1982 -0.86 -1.12 -1.34 -1.27 -1.11 -0.93 -0.18 0.42 0.79 1.05 1.09 1.08
1983 1.04 1.01 1.01 1.12 1.10 0.62 0.27 0.01 -0.18 -0.45 -0.52 -0.69
1984 -0.71 -0.84 -1.04 -1.19 -1.10 -1.10 -1.52 -1.73 -1.62 -1.38 -0.76 -0.42
1985 0.13 0.42 0.54 0.90 1.23 1.50 1.45 1.45 1.40 1.34 1.26 1.05
1986 0.87 0.91 1.00 0.74 0.42 0.19 0.12 -0.24 -0.38 -0.41 -0.34 -0.62
1987 -0.65 -0.84 -1.14 -1.32 -1.50 -1.38 -0.59 0.50 0.93 1.14 1.07 0.93
1988 0.79 0.58 0.50 0.53 0.57 0.40 0.23 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.04
1989 -0.08 -0.21 -0.11 -0.16 -0.31 -0.40 -0.58 -0.84 -1.09 -1.36 -1.24 -0.86
1990 -0.55 -0.47 0.10 0.46 1.06 1.42 1.57 1.57 1.52 1.39 1.25 1.11
1991 0.87 0.77 0.75 0.87 0.44 0.09 -0.30 -0.65 -0.69 -0.62 -0.69 -0.79
1992 -0.98 -1.09 -1.35 -1.45 -1.17 -0.88 -0.43 0.16 0.55 0.70 0.83 0.91
1993 0.94 0.96 0.95 1.02 1.23 0.90 0.58 0.45 0.36 0.05 -0.16 -0.25
1994 -0.47 -0.72 -0.90 -1.20 -1.34 -1.51 -1.79 -1.66 -1.10 -0.46 0.29 0.72
1995 0.84 0.73 0.74 0.96 1.35 1.64 1.50 1.32 1.02 0.66 0.24 -0.14
1996 -0.31 -0.48 -0.79 -0.91 -1.08 -1.02 -1.40 -1.56 -1.67 -1.53 -1.16 -0.56
1997 -0.13 0.24 0.39 0.75 1.15 1.56 1.74 1.47 1.43 1.30 0.98 0.49
1998 0.22 -0.15 -0.38 -0.59 -0.89 -1.07 -1.29 -1.41 -1.26 -1.11 -0.77 -0.18
1999 0.27 0.41 0.58 0.99 1.36 1.60 1.64 1.54 1.37 1.14 0.85 0.72
2000 0.53 0.45 0.49 0.42 0.11 -0.22 -0.53 -0.70 -0.81 -0.78 -0.87 -0.87
2001 -1.07 -1.13 -1.30 -1.41 -1.53 -1.51 -1.45 -1.22 -0.72 -0.51 0.00 0.36
2002 0.54 0.73 0.78 1.14 1.28 1.45 1.37 1.41 1.17 1.00 0.68 0.20
2003 0.04 -0.04 -0.25 -0.70 -1.00 -1.08 -1.33 -1.46 -1.39 -1.28 -1.14 -0.69
2004 -0.24 0.29 0.47 0.85 1.19 1.32 1.36 1.26 1.04 1.01 0.67 0.43
2005 0.12 0.01 -0.01 -0.54 -1.10 -1.31 -1.42 -1.56 -1.82 -1.97 -2.09 -1.80
2006 -1.38 -0.83 -0.01 0.41 0.97 1.30 1.42 1.42 1.28 1.26 1.14 0.75
2007 0.37 0.28 0.12 -0.42 -1.02 -1.37 -1.48 -1.69 -1.84 -1.99 -1.93 -1.35
2008 -0.85 -0.30 0.20 0.52 1.07 1.46 1.63 1.49 1.39 1.28 1.06 1.09
2009 1.03 1.09 0.95 0.74 0.26 -0.08 -0.45 -0.63 -0.68 -0.58 -0.81 -1.03
2010 -1.15 -1.30 -1.58 -1.92 -2.01 -1.67 -0.25 0.66 0.98 1.26 1.31 1.13
2011 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.95 0.68 0.58 0.51 0.26 0.13 -0.43 -1.08
2012 -1.15 -1.16 -1.34 -1.44 -1.67 -1.74 -1.72 -1.73 -1.72 -1.62 -1.23 -0.58
2013 -0.34 -0.02 0.25 0.68 1.16 1.46 1.71 1.74 1.52 1.33 1.33 1.26
2014 1.23 1.12 0.98 0.58 -0.10 -0.77 -1.02-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90
More or less all the big models shows a modoki or central Pac based El Nino this winter, like we saw back in 2009-10. The Jamstec model as a result and rightly so, correlates to this.[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
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