Well the GFS has hands down beaten the ECMWF on Bertha’s track as well as intensity, deepening from 1001mb off SW Britain to now nearer 978mb off Aberdeen.
As Bertha tracked NNE the system continued to deepen as seen by the GFS with wind speeds and rainfall increasing. The combination of Highland topography and very warm water (compared to normal) over the North Sea has likely enhanced rainfall creating significant Highland flooding.
I’m seeing wave heights of 13.5ft in the southern N Sea but I suspect waves of 20+ft are being reported on rigs just south and east of the centre. GFS surface at 06z.
As for the UK, rain more than wind has been the biggest factor and will continue to be over Scotland today. Flash flooding hits parts of England and Wales as well as Ireland yesterday but it’s Scotland’s turn today. The low is deeper and more tightly wound off the east coast. Backside NW winds above 4,000ft have been noteworthy.
TOP IMAGE Credit: NOAA
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Exposed Cairngorm Summit in the Central Highlands as saw wind gusts of 108 mph while Cairnwell Pass clocked 94 mph.
Check out the current radar off the weather channel app. Tremendous, wind driven rains across a large swath of the Highlands this morning.
Up to 3.5 inches of rain has fallen in Lossiemouth on the Moray coast since midnight while this was the scene at Kingussie railway station this morning!
No suroprise the MO have an Amber Warning over Grampian and Speyside.
Models remains consistent at Bertha lingering over the North Sea through much of this week keeping a cool, breezy and showery theme over the UK while spells of heavy rain affects France, Germany, Low Countries up into Denmark and Scandinavia. Eventually CFSv2 has a trough over the UK through the next 3 weeks with some ridging trying to come back week 4 or the first week of September. The monthly appears to have caught up with reality flipping from below normal precip to well above norm for August. It’s going for a drier, warmer September. Often when there’s a cooler and much more unsettled August, you get a bounce back and better Sept. Blowtorch sits over Scandinavia through October! Temps Still experiencing issues with my PC so posting via my laptop which isn’t ideal. No video today as a result but working on the issue!
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