Well it’s back to Bertha this morning and the potential for a major impact on Ireland and the UK this weekend. IT’S WAY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE A DEFINNATIVE FORECAST AND WEAKENING FROM MODELS IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE, BUT, the latest GFS is printing out some interesting and potentially problematic impacts if true.
In her current form!
Looking a mess if I may say so myself.
Impacts on the North America side.
Source: AccuWeather
NHC forecast track.
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Without appearing to hype this, check out the latest GFS surface charts for late weekend into early next week. Note the depth of central pressure.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Check out the upper level energy she has for support.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
500mb height anomaly. Impressive!
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Oh and here’s the jet stream given that she’s baroclinic, cold core and NON-TROPICAL by this stage. Hate when folk think a hurricane is on the way…
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
That’s an unusually strong jet for August. If this were to be as strong, we could have issues with damaging wind (70-80 mph) like we saw with Ex Hurricane Katia back in Sep 2011 as near perfect alignment of wind from top to bottom (jet stream level down to surface) you can get wind energy transfer or where stronger mid and upper level winds drop beneath the nose of the jet stream speed max.
Here’s the 10m winds expected late Sun into Mon.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
55 kts is just over 60 mph. IF models are correct on this, given surface pressure, tightly wound wind field and intensity of upper support fuelled by 130kt jet stream, we could see winds just south of the centre of 70, locally 80 mph out of this.
Could and I say could be an interesting summer storm but let’s watch the hype build. This wouldn’t be unusual. We get sideswiped by old, what was once tropical cyclones almost every late summer. Just every so often we get hit by stronger lows than others.
We may get another strong hit like Sep 2011 given these warm water anomalies surrounding our shores which may help fuel convection, wind energy etc.
Despite being fully cold core as the system crosses the cold north Atlantic waters, former ‘tropical’ cyclones tend to retain some tropical properties and that’s largely in the form of higher moisture content.
QPF projects upwards of 5, maybe 6 inches of rain over West Scotland through the next 7 days. Obviously we have plenty of moisture streaming in ahead of Bertha but don’t be surprised if the biggest rainmaker of potentially 3 between now and Mon AM is from Bertha.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
The good thing is, despite seeing some heavier rain of late, soils aren’t saturated and so heavy rain and fully leaved trees should fare well if this thing comes it and hits hard.
See this morning’s video for a discussion on Bertha’s potential impacts.
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