US Outlook: Eastern & Western Flood Threat, W Pac Typhoons To Reinforce Chill Through August

Written by on August 3, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It continues to be a wet weekend up the Eastern Seaboard courtesy of a frontal boundary while the monsoonal flow brings storms, flash flooding and threats of flash flooding to several parts of the West including Phoenix and Las Vegas.

The front responsible for bringing wet weather from Florida to New Jersey into southern New England along with the descent of another, reinforcing trough, will help keep Bertha out at sea this week.

Latest infrared on Bertha.

rb-l

Bertha’s holding her own against a sea of dusty air extending from Africa to the Caribbean.

Source: CIMSS

Source: CIMSS

As the system lifts out of the dusty air within the ITCZ zone and into a calmer, less sheared environment nearer the Bahamas, intensification is expected.

NHC has recurve track but brings it to hurricane status NW of Bermuda.

120946W5_NL_sm

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Bertha may make a close enough approach to the East Coast this week to boost the rain and thunderstorm activity up the Eastern Seaboard.

BuHKQUWCMAAFTwo

Current frontal zone has a flood threat up the Carolina coastal plain today!

Here’s an AccuWeather graphic showing the early workweek setup across the US.

Source: AccuWeather

Source: AccuWeather

Today’s surface map off the GFS

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Upper

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Today’s Southwest flash flood threat (via WeatherNation)

Source: WeatherNation

Source: WeatherNation

Looking further down the road. Remember Typhoon Neoguri and the 6-11 day record cold eastern US trough which followed?

There’s not one but two more typhoons likely to turn NNE near Japan over the next week and modelling supports further troughs into the eastern US as a downwind result.

wp1214

wp1114

GFS 16 day 500mb height anomalies.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

CFSv2 temps through the next 4 weeks.

wk1_wk2_20140802_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140802_NAsfcT

Wouldn’t be surprised if we get another super trough into the East before the end of August given the potential re-amplification of the height field from East Asia to North America from the ripple effect of these typhoons.

This simply promises more cool, wet weather for the East and little to no 90 degree weather for the Big Eastern cities on the horizon. We’re likely to see some of the least 90s in a summer from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Atlantic coast in years.

Be sure to check out today’s video for discussion!

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top