Europe Medium Range: Keeping An Eye On Bertha

Written by on August 3, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

While one low lifts north, another up near Iceland will send a front towards the UK Tuesday-Wednesday bringing more wet, breezy weather to particularly the western UK and much of Ireland. Till then, a weak, skinny ridge builds in bringing back warm sunshine.

It’s that time of year when the tropics begin to heat up (disturbance-wise) and while we here in Western Europe don’t get ‘tropical storms’, we do however get sideswiped every so often. It’s typically from systems clipping the US or Canada coast which catch a free ride on a predominantly west-east jet stream across the N Atlantic.

nao_fcst

With the NAO neutral (above) and favourable for Bertha to take that track on the northern periphery of the mid-Atlantic ridge we may want to watch our charts next weekend into the start of week 2 for ex-tropical storm Bertha near our shores.

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Here’s the latest NHC track for Bertha. Note the ‘H’, stating a hurricane near Bermuda!

AL0314W5_NL

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AccuWeather Pro

The latest model runs do have Bertha intensifying into a Cat 1 hurricane WNW of Bermuda, weakening as it enters colder water and transitions but intensifies as a cold core low mid way between Newfoundland and Ireland in the 192 to 204 hour range (Sun-Mon)

When looking at the ECMWF surface chart, I am pretty sure it’s the same system that’s currently Bertha which the ECM blows up into a well organised, tightly wound 980mb low just off SW Ireland.

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While not a particularly big deal, the meteorology of this common scenario during late summer when the tropics meet the mid-latitudes is interesting. We can get some interesting and at times, unusual weather. Warm/cool blasts as well as a pretty good summer gale or rain storm. I think back to September 2011 when ex-hurricane Katia hammered Scotland with 80 mph winds bringing minor damage and disruption. The system (fully cold cold by the time it reached the UK) was stronger and had a lower central pressure over Scotland than when it was a hurricane in the tropics.

Along with the usual wind and rain produced by these systems, they also act as wheels in our atmosphere, drawing air in from various directions. The forecasted track may see heat being pulled into the UK from the heart of the continent. The ECMWF upper charts show the height rises and upper flow drawing warmth. (see video for more on this)

ECM1-168

ECM1-192

ECM1-216

ECM1-240

This is obviously pretty far out and the models will likely shift around but this may be an interesting medium range period coming up for us. Also worth watching the West Pacific where it’s fairly active these days. When we had the recurve of Neoguri, we saw a record cold shot into the Eastern United States while the UK saw very warm to hot weather. We may have a similar scenario later in the month. Will look at this in the coming days.

See today’s video for discussion!

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