W EUROPE: Pattern & Global Drivers Give Reason Not To Write Off Summer Yet!

Written by on July 30, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

A few individuals lately have reappeared on social media asking me why I’m calling for a warmer, drier than normal August when operational models show a trough (they only seen to appear when they think I’m going to get a forecast wrong, haha).

Regarding the summer overall, had I went by the same models at the beginning, well boy would my forecast not have been a bust, just like last summer would have been a bust too.

Thankfully I look at the broader picture and my understanding of ocean-atmosphere feedback, oncoming Nino and solar max reaction appears to have paid off. Both this summer and last has been pretty accurate in my opinion. Of course there are some which will refer back to my bust last winter but I hopefully have learned from my mistakes by not ignoring the impacts of a solar max.

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The reason I cannot write off summer in August and I see little real pattern shift just yet but I know it’s coming, is based around the history of this summer’s pattern and past patterns which have seen a similar type of Nino, solar and global sst profile. We have a world of heat across our ‘region’ of the world with abnormally warm water surrounding us. I admit, August could go either way but if you simply base your ‘forecast’ on operational models which change almost constantly well you’d have written this summer off right from the start never mind now.

Interestingly, while not showing it a few days ago, the latest GFS ensemble may have you thinking twice about a persistently cool, wet August.

If you’ve been paying attention, You’ll know my thinking behind August, A CONTINUATION OF A MIXED PATTERN. Unsettled start but spells of heat and sun in between.

Here’s the latest GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies through the next 16 days. The model is now pushing positive heights from Scandinavia where it’s been warmest compared to normal back SW across the UK. OVER the abnormally warm sst’s.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

In years like this year, given the level of warmer-than-normal over the North Sea and Baltic Sea, there can be a stronger ocean to atmosphere response at the end game of summer. In other words, we may well see the strongest positive sit right where the warmest water is and the GFS ensemble with the latest run at least, appears to be showing this.

Check out the SST anomalies.


I think we see more heat and good weather during August but as the atmosphere cools into September and October, that warm water may bring us a very wet autumn period.

As shown in this morning’s video, look at how the CFSv2 appears to draw the heat north to where waters are warmest compared to normal. October is now looking colder than it has been but November is warm. Remember back to 2009, a super wet and mild November occurred ahead of the cold winter of 2009-10.

NAO trending negative, fits with slackening westerlies over the pole.


Westerlies soon to shift easterly at the polar stratosphere level. Greater likelihood of seeing SSW events this winter! Graphic via Michael Ventrice.


Where wettest in late autumn, that’s where the winter trough likes to go. That happened in 2009 and with a trend towards more negative NAO as the solar max wanes and the westerly QBO reverses, look out! Easterly QBO winters like in 2009-10 produce lots of strong high latitude blocking including a Greenland block and the CFSv2 is pointing that way already.






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