US LONG RANGE: No Northeast Heatwave In Summer 2014? Remarkable! / Glance At Fall!

Written by on July 29, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

There’s little change in the overall pattern across the United States and North America as a whole. Pretty much the same old ridge and trough positions and so the warm summer continues Out West while it’s chilly from the Plains to Ohio Valley. Warm up against the East Coast largely thanks to warm waters offshore holding particularly night temps up.

As for the tropics, well there may finally be something to look at as a wave embedded within the Atlantic ITCZ continues to show signs of life. Models have this entity developing east of the Lesser Antilles but whether this becomes any sort of treat to land remains to be seen.

The NHC has upped the development potential to 70%.


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As for the US pattern, well your well aware of the latest big trough descending over the Great Lakes and Midwest with temps averaging 5-15 below normal. The warm NE Pacific continues to boost atmospheric pressure above and as a result high pressure continues to rule much of northern Canada as well as the North Atlantic and in turn, below normal heights remain further south.

The CFSv2 500mb height anomalies show the reason for continued cool given the positioning of the ridges and where those ridges have been persistent, warmer than normal SST’s have been noticeable underneath.



Here are the CFSv2 temps in response to the projected 500mb height anomalies through the next 4 weeks.



Note the lack of any significant shift in the upper pattern through most of August. There’s pretty much NO sign of any heatwave east of the Rockies through the remainder of the summer which is pretty amazing given the lack of 90s across the Midwest and Northeast. I mean no 3-day stretch of 90 in the big Northeast cities as of yet and we’re knocking on the door of August, is quite remarkable.

The final meteorological summer month is dominated by cool!! Note the coverage of wetter than normal conditions.

CFSv2 August temps


August Precipitation


September looks no different. Cool and wet.

September temps


September precipitation


What’s interesting is that the CFSv2 is seeing a warm October. Worth keeping an eye on as remember the seasonal shift. Same pattern now can bring different conditions at a later date.

October temps


October Precipitation


See today’s video for discussion.

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