EUROPE: High Pressure Gives Way To Low Pressure, CFSv2 Weekly Contradicts CFSv2 Monthly

Written by on July 29, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Well it would appear the pattern shall be quite different by the end of this workweek compared to the last as high pressure collapses and a firm trough comes in. Operational models are in good agreement of the mean trough sitting just off Ireland while 2 to 4 separate low pressure systems swing straight across Ireland and the UK from the N Atlantic late week through the weekend and into next week.

We may still see brief sunny, warm spells in between particularly ahead of next week’s systems.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The question is, will this be a permanent pattern shift or will we see the ridge return. I still stand by my original idea that ridging returns and we get more summer and I also suspect more warmth and sunshine (periodically) through September also. I think this trough lasts 10-14 days before more sustained summer warmth returns. I just do see this being the end game to this summer.

The below charts are the latest 500mb/upper temp chart through the next 192 hours off the GFS. Note the blues hanging over the UK and Ireland. We haven’t seen much of that in the past 3 weeks but keep in mind that June ended and July started on a similar note to this and we all know the kind of weather which followed. Only big difference is that the atmosphere slowly and I mean SLOWLY changes shape through August but there’s a lot of heat in our atmosphere that’s built up. We just have to consider the seasonal shifts that take place during the later stages of summer and take that into consideration. Modelling may not be showing ridges in our future but then again they didn’t show ridges for July or June or for much of June for that matter.

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Source/Credit: meteociel.fr

Here’s the GFS surface/precip charts for the close to the work week, through the weekend and into next week and notice how precip picks up as lows become more pronounced from this weekend on into next week.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Predominantly neutral NAO supports more Atlantic weather into the W of Europe through the next 10 days or so.

nao_sprd2

As stated in the title above, there’s contradiction with the CFSv2 weekly vs monthly. By that I mean the weeklies show more trough or neutral heights for the UK and W of Europe yet the monthly has us above normal temperature wise. A definite fight to end this summer.

wk1_wk2_20140727_z500

wk3_wk4_20140727_z500

euT2mMonInd1

See today’s video for discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top