With an upper trough on top of strong surface warming at this time of year we can expect heavy showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure is currently bringing heavy, persistent rainfall to much of central Europe with a flood risk over parts of Germany into the Alpine region.
Before I get to the discussion, I drove up to Oban yesterday and when passing Ben More, beside Crainlarich (elevation 3,852ft) I noticed 2 or 3 large patches of snow remaining. Impressive given it’s mid summer and the elevation isn’t particularly impressive, keep in mind there’s no mountain in the UK higher than 4, 409ft (Ben Nevis). In fact there’s large snow patches remaining on many Munros (hills above 3,000ft)
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With an active boundary sitting just off the East Coast of the UK acting as a trigger, there’s a band of heavy, perhaps torrential rain with embedded storms will run from the Grampians down to London today which could spell trouble for those travelling with tough driving conditions.
Here’s the latest ECMWF surface chart and note the model ‘seeing’ today’s heavy thundery downpours., Pretty much anywhere could see them but the focus will be a line from the Grampians down to the London area.
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With low pressure overhead comes a cool mid and upper level. Once the sun warms the lower atmosphere, so the air is encouraged to rise towards that colder air and so showers and thunderstorms are born.
Here’s this afternoon’s 850mb (5,000ft) temps. That’s a difference between 17-22C at the surface verses 0 to 5C, well below freezing at 500mb.
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CAPE values are huge but there is sufficient ingredients in place for good convective lift.
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During Wednesday, the UK is sandwiched between that low over the Netherlands that’s bringing the big rains and a strong high to the WNW. That high builds into the UK Wednesday but it won’t be strong enough to stop the rather active front from moving onto the East Coast from the North Sea later tomorrow into Thursday. Before the front reaches the North Sea shores, Wednesday is looking warm and sunny with highs widely into the upper teens, low 20s.
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Cool, wet and windy Thursday for the east, staying dry and warm with some sun in the west but change comes Friday with rain in the west, dry, bright and warm in the east.
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The ECMWF has the low centred near the Dutch coast loosing steam considerably by Saturday with ridging rebuilding, settling things down both over the near continent as well as the UK.
Unfortunately, while one low weakens, the next front associated with another (Atlantic) low sweeps in bringing more unsettled weather into the late weekend, early new week time frame.
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That front crosses the UK and clears but another feature moves in in it’s wake.
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If the ECMWF model holds true, it looks to be a fairly unsettled theme through much of the upcoming 7 day period. In saying that, there’s still a decent enough gap between the enhanced shower and rain activity which won’t make this spell seem just as bad. Plenty of warmth around too.
Will have a look at the longer term again tomorrow.
See today’s video for discussion.
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