The system which NHC had a 10% chance of development off the SE coast has all but fell apart.
Here was this morning.
Now.
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NHC this morning.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A weak surface trough located just offshore of the coasts of
Georgia and the Carolinas is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. Surface pressures remain high across the area and
strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development
of this system as it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph over the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
Now.
This is a lot of the reason why the deep tropics (Atlantic) is very quiet just now.
As for the US pattern, a reinforcing shot of cool dives into the nations mid section this week but southwest winds and sunshine on the western flank of the Bermuda high out over the Atlantic will pump 90s back up the East Coast by mid week.
While the heat and humidity returns to the East Coast, the trough of chill back west will slide east just like we’ve seen all along.
I posted yesterday about the expected re-curve of Super Typhoon Neoguri. The models support the tele-connected eastern trough in the 8-14 day period.
Latest visible satellite image of Neoguri.
Track from JTWC
Wow, just look at the trough the ECMWF has over the Great Lakes and Midwest by 192 hours.
It’s quite incredible when looking at the models to see the lack of any real summer heat.
CFSv2 weeklies dominated by cool not warm.
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