Deep Low Still On The Charts, Targets Iceland, Scotland Next Week… Look At July!

Written by on June 29, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been a rough start to the weekend across southern areas of the UK as expected but the good news is those downpours that were often accompanied by thunder and lightning will ease during today.

Today, expect longer spells of sun and fewer showers. Staying mainly dry with a sun/cloud mix for Northern Ireland, northern England and Scotland like yesterday.

We’re keeping an eye on a low that’s spinning not too far off Cornwall. This system may keep things cloudier and may bring some rain onshore tomorrow (Mon) but on the whole, high pressure builds in allowing conditions to settle, brighten and warm up. Really through the first half of the new work week conditions look pretty decent across the board but staying unsettled into the near continent as the low that is currently over but exiting the UK pushes into Denmark and the Baltic Sea. This will keep the wet theme going over the heart of Europe where we’ve seen some torrential rains over the Alps in recent days.

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: NASA

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The low spinning off Cornwall looks as though it will stay offshore but it looks to push into France and Iberia bringing unsettled and cooler conditions here through the week.

So, while the weekend low which brought all the showers and thunderstorms to the UK shifts into northern Europe and another slowly heads for Spain and Portugal, high pressure will build into the UK Monday through Wednesday but we continue to keep a close watch on a low that’s quickly developing near Greenland. Models keep showing this thing deepening into the 970s over Iceland and this could bring quite stormy conditions up there.

ECMWF sea level pressure chart at 48 hours shows the UK sandwiched between lows with high pressure in between bringing the more settled conditions.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

There is consistency with both ECM and GFS and bringing this low down over Scotland towards the end of the week. While the GFS is somewhat slower and weaker, the latest ECMWF shows the low to dropping towards an impressive 970mb over Iceland and 984mb 2-3 days later over northern Scotland. As well as bringing the focus of unsettled weather to more northern areas this time with an active front which could bring a soaking, it could also be quite the wind maker with gusts of 50+mph along the coast, 20-40mph over inland areas.

Here’s the latest surface charts through the next 7 days off the ECMWF.

12z Mon

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

12z Tue

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

12z Wed

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

18z Thu

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

12z Sat

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF has some snow for the Alps!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

QPF rainfall through the next 7 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As we look down the road and deep into July, the CFSv2 only flirts high pressure with the UK, keeping it off our shores in the means through the first half of the month but into the 2nd half and the model shows bring ridging over us.

wk1_wk2_20140627_z500

wk3_wk4_20140627_z500

The 16 day GFS ensemble 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies show the easing of the trough over the UK with ridging trying to build in off the Atlantic by the end of the period. Models are certainly hinting at that cooler first half, warmer, drier second half.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

7-14 day

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

9-16 day

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

There’s little guidance on both July and August in the CFSv2 monthly. Still showing below normal temps across southern Europe.

euT2mMonInd1

euT2mMonInd2
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