US Outlook: Tropical Development Possible Off Carolinas While SW Monsoon May Kick Off Next Week

Written by on June 28, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

While we see some pre 4th of July heat and humidity surge into the East this weekend and early next week, the real heat will remain draped across the Southern Tier just where you’d expect it at this time of year. This heat will try lifting north but systems pushing into the Pacific Northwest and track east, always cuts the heat and humidity’s northward progression big time.

Here’s the upper air pattern at 24 hrs off the ECMWF. Note the latest dagger slicing the northward progression of heat.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

High pressure is seen by the models to build back West which in turn looks to send another heat supressing trough down through the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic just in time for the holidays, in other words make the most of the ‘pre-holiday’ warmth that’s coming with the new trough digging into the West. This won’t last. Just as it get’s warm to hot in the East, the cool can already be seen coming in from behind. That’s been the story and will continue to be the story of this summer.

500mb at 72 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Here comes the trough into the Lakes at 120 hrs while the Western ridge is bringing heat to the West but even here, another low is lurking off Washington and will eventually send heights down with a new trough into the West. Highs may top 100 in Montana with this 582 ridge while the trough over the Great Lakes holds Chicago and Detroit in the low 70s.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 156 hrs the ridge axis is out over the western Plains. Heat simply cannot hold this year.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The Northeast along with the Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes sure looks cool for the holidays with the 4th itself seeing widespread 70s. Coolest in some time.

Between now and 240 hrs, the ridge core shifts from Montana to the western Lakes but appears to never reach the Northeast proper but by then and into the second week of July, modest ridging largely dominates the country.

120 hour 500mb height anomalies.

ecmwfued-hgt--conus-120-A-500hgtanom_white

240 hr

ecmwfued-hgt--conus-240-A-500hgtanom_white

The CFSv2 temp anomalies through the next 4 weeks looks like this.

wk1_wk2_20140626_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140626_NAsfcT

Too Much Rain Leads To Problems On The Mississippi

Source: AccuWeather

Source: AccuWeather

Mississippi River Flooding to Impact Communities, Port Operations

NHC Keeping Eye On System Off Carolinas For Development Early Next Week!

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Source: NHC

Source: NHC

1. A weak non-tropical area of low pressure is moving southeastward
off the coast of South Carolina.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it lingers off the southeastern coast of
the United States through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

Source: AccuWeather

Source: AccuWeather

The Indian Monsoon Is 10-15 Days Behind But What About The Southwest Monsoon?

As high pressure builds but also shifts east from Southern California to the Four Corners, modelling is sniffing out some increased humidity and moisture from the Baja and Mexico which could spark mid to late week showers and thunderstorms over parts of Arizona, Nevada, California and Utah.

Source: NWS

Source: NWS

ECMWF surface at 156 hrs shows moisture lifting into the Western US from Mexico!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Dew points on the rise late next week into the weekend.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Strong Indication Of El Nino, here’s the latest SST’s.

anomnight_6_26_2014

Plenty of moisture in the ground east of the Plains but areas that are dry could start to see sporadic rainfall starting next week as a potential monsoon pattern commences.

soil1

See today’s video for more!

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