July To Open Wet & Windy For Ireland, UK (Wellies Required For Glastonbury!)

Written by on June 27, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As expected, this weekend as well as next weekend looks to be LOW PRESSURE dominated as the overall pattern shifts from continental to oceanic. High pressure has been spoiling us in recent weeks, helping us dry out nicely after the wet winter and at times spring.

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As for this weekend, a large envelop of low pressure will be draped from the Celtic Sea  across to Denmark keeping showers frequent and heavy over southern Ireland, Wales and England. That of course includes Glastonbury. Classic UK festival weather it looks like. Just hope folks have brought their wellies.

Here’s the GFS surface for tomorrow and you get the picture.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England is looking largely fine and dry with a sun/cloud mix and just a few showers around. Clear and light winds by night means a drop in temperature. Perhaps down to between 1-3C in some Highland Glens which raises a slight frost threat.

As for early and mid next week, high pressure builds in on the backside of the low and it pushes into the continent.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As that high builds in next Wednesday over the UK, this feature is really just separating lows within the storm train Note in the below surface chart, the low over us this weekend is by then spinning over southern Sweden while our next system that should hit next weekend is already on the map, cast your eyes to Greenland and Iceland.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the height anomaly chart. That’s quite the low for July!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Finally, by next Saturday, that low is spinning sub-995, perhaps below 990 just off Fraserbrugh.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Check out the anomaly chart. Quite the low, especially for the time of year.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Based on current runs, the associated front would pass during Friday bringing a band of heavy rain and gusty winds before the main low moves in. This would be a widespread wind and rain event with likely gales along coasts.

Looking further out and high pressure is seen to build back into the UK as that low, like the current one moves into Western and central Europe bringing unsettled weather to a large swath of the continent.

It also appears that the GFS ensemble 7-day means, holds the trough over the UK well into July. Worth watching.

0-7 day

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

7-14

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

9-16

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The good thing about this pattern despite it being ‘trough dominant’ is that the lows are fairly spread apart with decent ridging in between which could present 2 or 3 days of decent weather ahead of the next batch of unsettled conditions. So many of our summers can be strongly Atlantic influenced with one low after the other streaming in bringing day after day of wet, windy and cool weather.,

Notice in the surface pressure section of the below GFS meteogram for Dublin that’s there’s a long drawn out rise and fall of pressure. Back in summer 2012, pressure was firmly in the tank. This time around is drops to near 1000mb but rises to near 1030. There’s only 2 falls between now and mid-July.

Day 1-8

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5312-671meteogram_sfc

9-15

gfs384-hgtprs--conus-204-A-us5296-671meteogram_sfc

See today’s video for discussion.

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