Glasgow Tops 24.7C Monday Where High Is Closest, Break Down Is Coming…

Written by on June 17, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It was a beautiful and warm day particularly for Western Scotland yesterday while disappointing in your more typically favoured UK hot spots. The reason is all thanks to the positioning of the high. Centred NW of Scotland, the strongest heights and available sunshine has been here, nearest the core and we should see similar, unbroken sun and temps around 24 or 25C. A touch warmer and sunnier today for more southern areas as heights and 850 temps rise a touch.

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Models still agree on that gradual breaking down of heights late week as the ridge weakens and drifts further out into the Atlantic. Still warm but a touch cloudier tomorrow (Wed) but by Thursday, Friday on into the weekend, it cools with a chance of precipitation returning as a front dives down the North Sea, introducing fresher air.

It’s all thanks to a big trough and low over Scandinavia which is becoming the more dominant feature across Europe. That system is some pretty cool, unsettled weather which is working south into central and southeastern areas. The best of the weather is over the UK and Ireland but eventually, we turn late week and look cooler and more unsettled next week.

Any showers today will be largely down to strong surface heating as thermals get going. It should be eastern Scotland into northern England and down the Pennines where there’s less capping.

Here’s a look at the ECMWF surface charts through the next

48 hrs

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

96 hrs

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

120 hrs

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

168 hrs

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

Courtesy/Credit: ECMWF

Notice the trough over Scandinavia takes charge by the end of the 168 hr period with the ridge supressed south and west.

The ECMWF surface chart shows the expansion of much fresher air and unsettled weather.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

That trough is even seen to bring snow to parts of Scandinavia and the Alps according to the models.

ECMWF

ecmwfued-hgtprs--europe-168-A-snowtot

GFS

gfs-null--europe-168-A-frozentot10

Big Upper Trough For West Through 1st Week Of July?

Looking further out into fantasy territory and ECMWF monthly has a deep upper trough swinging into the UK and west of the continent week one of July.

Model has initial ridge but look what follows…

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

See today’s video for more!

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